Interest Rates

Let’s try to get this site back to basics. The real reason we all first came here was to guess what lies ahead in hope to make some money off property, right? Right? Some, of course, also try to trade stocks or bitcoin, but that’s mugs’ game as these assets are volatile and not guaranteed to increase in value every 7 years.

So, to kick things off, the week started off with news everywhere about Kamala Harris’ economic plan. Lots of fun things in it, price controls, cap on prescription drug costs, child tax credit, to name a few. But, what is interesting, she proposed to a) provide a $25K subsidy for first home buyers (first ever in the USA, I think) and b) efforts aimed at lowering the cost of rent and helping renters who struggled financially (maybe expanding Section 8-type subsidies to a wider audience or increasing Section 8 housing subsidies, I don’t know). Section 8 housing is lower-income housing (usually for those on welfare) and tends to be less desirable, like ghettos.

Of course, there were howls that proposed price controls would lead to “communism, mass starvation and the end of America“. But no one batted an eyelid about propping up housing market, purchases and rentals. Guess Australia is finally setting an example on how to get ahead by killing manufacturing, extracting natural resources (shale oil) and selling each other real estate. Oh, and immigrants. On the other side of the election, republican VP nominee, J.D. Vance is being lauded as “a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity for dramatic advancements in the lives of America’s most down-trodden, forgotten, and trapped“. And this can be achieved through homeownership. In fact, this next piece makes a bold claim: “In our country, homeownership is the primary way citizens build wealth“. So as we see, all things economic are up for debate except – ta-da – home ownership.

Next insignificant political event that might be happening is RFK Jr. endorsing Trump as soon as this Friday (Saturday morning our time) and getting a Cabinet role. This will blend republican and some democrat vote (RFK Jr. is supported fairly well) and could prevent the Ross Perot fiasco when he pulled republican vote from Bush Sr. in 1992 (and from Bob Dole in 1996) ensuring a win by Bill Clinton. So this can cement Trump’s win over Harris, rigged elections or not. And of course, the next opinion piece states that because of the inflationary impact of Trump’s economic policies the Fed would be forced cutting at 4.50%. I honestly tried to look for a list of Trump’s inflationary policies but came up short. In fact, CNBC just 4 days ago said that Trump is yet to roll out his plan, so guess we’ll have to wait and see. Except housing, I presume, because J.D.!

Next oddity in the USA is the revision of employment figures by, wait for it, 818 THOUSAND. Oopsie! And, of course, letting a handful of traders know about this revision in advance, or so it is insinuated:

“I am more than a little annoyed,” said Troy Ludtka, senior US economist at SMBC Nikko Securities Americas, who was among those who waited on the public release.

“To put it in the most generous terms: Government agencies absolutely cannot be selectively releasing critical, market-moving information to some agents and broker dealers first via telephone while keeping others in the dark,” he said. “This is anathema to the very idea of a balanced market built on fair, accessible information.”

So what do you think this little revision would to the rates? Up, down, sideways? In the US economy, that is adding ~1T to its debt every 100 days, and its debt repayments (interest) are soon to hit $2T annually, more than double Pentagon’s budget, raising rates will kill the economy even faster. Lowering the rates will make Treasuries cheaper, so it is a big question who would continue buying in a lower rate environment (and trajectory). Sideways sort of kicks the can, but I am not sure how much of the road is there left.

But the USA is still not done stimulating the economy. Here I found you two examples where the USA seeks to get ahead even the world champion Australia in housing stimulus game. Cue the song, America, fuck yeah!

First: California Wants To Reward Illegal Aliens With Zero Down, No Payment Home Loans. Second: Taxpayer-Funded Oregon Group Offers $30,000 To Home Buyers… As Long As They’re Not American Citizens. This is on top of Kamala’s proposed $25,000 first time home buyer grant. These will certainly help in fighting America’s housing unaffordability! And, by the way, California is ranked #1, and Oregon #9 in housing unaffordability, according to this dude. Median wage (some sies say it is average salary – I couldn’t be bothered to figure out which source does not understand statistics) in USA is $60K before tax.

So what does all of this US-centric stuff has to do with us? A couple of things. Clearly, we have ways to go to stimulate the housing, we haven’t even started tossing free money to illegal immigrants. And what does this mean to our own interest rates?

A couple of funny things happened over last week. First, there were a couple of pieces on Yahoo Finance, about Westpac, NAB and CBA cutting fixed home loan rates: NAB by 0.6%, Westpac by 0.8%, CBA by 0.7%. Some cuts for variable rates, too. This is without any movement from the RBA. Second, my bank called, for the second time in a month, asking if I was happy with their services and whether I wanted to review my home lending products. You see, in early 2025 I will be rolling off fixed 2.09% onto whatever the rate will be at the time. Currently, 5.99% seems to be the best fixed deal for P&I with LVR < 60%. In this conversation, my bank said that a portion of my loan that was variable could be refinanced at a lower rate (I had a credit card linked to the account that afforded me the same interest rate, in case I needed it – 2.09% at the time). I have never heard of a bank calling to see if I wanted a lower home loan rate. Something is certainly happening.

My speculation it can be one of four things: 1. The Big 4 are trying to siphon whatever business is out there, undercutting the rates to try to woo whatever borrowers are left with the 2nd and 3rd tier lenders. Maybe 20% probability. 2. The rate cuts are coming, by signing people up to a fixed rate now they will protect the business at a higher margin, especially after everyone got shafted by the RBA hiking after the perceived promise of no hikes until 2024 (yes, I know, it’s a fallacy, but we have what we have). About 50% probability. 3. I am a super likeable person and the bank wants to be nice to me and help me save money by giving me some of their profits. 1% probability. 4. I have no clue what is going to happen and why. 29% probability.

Regardless, in 4 months I will need to make a decision which way to go. Currently, my gut feel is that the rates may get reduced in the next 6 months, once, maybe twice, but then inflation will kick in again (USA, wars, unemployment rising), so I will be looking to fix for the next 3 to 5 years. As seen above, there is only 1% probability that I’d be wrong.

Your thoughts?

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LSWCHP

The way things are turning to shit socially, politically and economically across the western world, I can’t see rates being cut in the foreseeable future, and they will probably rise. If I was in your situation I’d go for a few years fixed. Disclosure: I have been wrong in the past. Second Disclosure: Not all that often.

Keep in mind too that even after the recent rate inflation, interest rates are still at historically low levels. When I bought a house with Evil Wife Number 2 in 2006 the rate was around 9% IIRC and nobody batted an eye.

Regarding the US election, I hope Trump wins. If you’ve seen the video of Harris talking about data now being stored in a cloud and gesturing upwards, you realise that she really does think that data is stored in fluffy white clouds in the sky. Calling her dumber than a box of rocks is insulting to the intelligence of rocks. She is genuinely stupid. Trump is a cunt I’m sure but he’s not stupid and being a cunt is really irrelevant. Also he has form on the job.

Finally, I’d be astonished if lots of people in the US are making $60Kpa, regardless of whether that’s mean or median.

LSWCHP

Cheers mate, you too.

Poochy

Why do you think that rates are going up in the medium term?

Poochy

QE or something functionally equivalent.

Of course it is possible. It is actually easy.

Say Harris (or Trump) introduces a $250,000 “American dream” housing grant. Treasury&Fed collude to monetise this.

Immediately each piece of real estate is $250k-$500k more expensive (leverage). Call it $330k on average.

6 million home sales per year times $0.33m = $2tr of capital gains realised per year.

this will generate a fair bit of tax revenue every year (gov collecting a share of its own printed money) and when maintained for a few years will debase the USD by 50% in no time.

commentBot

need to sell more debt to continue the game. Hard to do that with lower rates.

Someone needs to be on the other side of that debt as well.Hard to do that at higher rates.

Stewie

need to sell more debt to continue the game. Hard to do that with lower rates.

Already the Fed is the largest buyer of more debt, so it is less relevant than the rate of debt production. Biden came on with a huge expansion in Govt spending, imho that has crowded out a heap of private consumption and has been one of the main reason supply lines have backed up.

Trump being elected might actually be deflationary, as he reduces Govt spending or redirects it back to tax payers in a relative sense, as a percentage of total economic spend for the US economy. Certainly the spend for the Ukraine as USD sent over there, which resembles a black hole stripping away a sun’s atmosphere, would decline.

A Trump win would also be good for the USD imho, as Trump has repeatedly said he believes in a strong USD as being good. He’s proposing some interesting stuff Tarrif and tax wise. This could also be deflationary, at least in the short term as global capacity is displaced… like what is occurring with US auto-motors vs China manufacturers.

Long term you may have a point on rates rising, but imho cyclically we are probably going to enter an easing cycle for at least a year or two.

Aussie Soy Boy

Wow imagine giving a fuck about this stuff.

Jew boy is gonna lose. I got my money on Harris on good odds.

OzCuck

What about the micks. The pope is gay. Catholicism clearly has a communist flavour to it. Therefore if you’re a Catholic you are clearly and objectively gay.

Aussie Soy Boy

Harris is going to beat jew boy.

Who cares about the US. Their market will go ballistic no matter what. That’s all that matters. Who gives a fuck about their people or country.

The jew loving prick is done.

JimsCentralBanking

Market rates have come down, which is what the banks are responding to. The cash rate will follow soon enough. I wouldn’t fix in this environment because rates are likely to fall more slowly here, but there’s always the chance of some panic cuts if we see a slowdown. That’s probably the time to consider fixing.

Having said that, if you get an offer you’re happy with, maybe it’s worth taking it and saving yourself the stress, because even professional rates traders blow themselves up playing this game.

robert2013

BTC up in response to gov bullshit.

Poochy

Yes. So here’s the thing – they basically can’t stop printing.

Even if Trump gets in they won’t be able to stop printing.

To some extent that are able to decide where the hose is pointed at. Maybe it’s housing subsidies, maybe it’s agriculture subsidies + price caps. Maybe it’s military spending.

BTC doesn’t care much about the detail of it, it reacts to the debasement.

A fly in your ointment

BTC doesn’t care much about the detail of it, it reacts to the debasement.

So far crypto reacts more to hype than anything else. Gold should be the first one to react to debasement alas the market is manipulated more than Aussie RE….

V

They needs rates down else how will the US pay its debt? They cannot do at 5% rates. Is it more complicated than this analysis? Meanwhile we will find inflation in the necessities of life will continue to impoverish people in the west.

Nemesis

The debt is irrelevant; the US has no intention of paying it and never will.

Poochy

I don’t know if it really matters to the US whether its external debt is at rate m or n.

High rate means borrow/print more to “pay” the interest directly.

Low rate means print more in order to force the rates lower (QE and various varieties of alphabet soup).

Both involve printing, the difference is who gets the printed money & who cops the debasement.

There is no question of affording or not affording.

LSWCHP

20 year old athlete dies of turbo brain cancer.

https://www.bbc.com/sport/articles/ce38yzed9g9o

Nothing to see here. All perfectly normal move along now.

A fly in your ointment
A fly in your ointment

Chris Nemeth made the same decision as nearly every Aussie, and his old life was “taken away”. But what came after was simply “cruel”.

A fly in your ointment

While Ortega was initially reported to have drowned, lifeguards have now confirmed that he was on the shore when he went into cardiac arrest.

for one celebrity a day there have to be 1000s of regular Joes

LSWCHP

So the next head honcho of the “conservatives” in the UK is likely to be a dreadlocked black bitch from Nigeria.

https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/kemi-badenoch-tory-leadership-poll-c2cm7b523

Fuck me dead, they’re lost. They should just tow Airstrip one out into the Atalantic and sink it, with everybody on it.

I used to feel sorry for the Swedes with their Muslim debacle. After a while, I changed my views to be something like “Well, No more sympathy, fools. You kept voting to be raped and beheaded by idiot niggers, and here you are, so suck it up dummies”. That’s now how I feel about the UK. Ruled over by demented white people who’ve succumbed to the black worship brain virus. Having that midget fool Sunak wasn’t enough for them, so go bigger with Badenoch.

They can (and will) all just die like dogs, for all I care.

Nemesis

This is great news: the Tories are woke and have totally misread/betrayed their audience. Moves like this will push supporters to Reform and other independent parties.

OzCuck

Libs put a fair bit of effort into getting the shitskin vote in Sydney. Too many white people have turned into faggot Teal and Labor supporters.

JimsCentralBanking

Hard disagree on this one.

I’ve been researching building a battery for my brother’s solar system and have been shocked at how much capacity per dollar can be had today compared to the previous time I looked into this, which was about 3 – 4 years ago.

Basically, the Chyna subsidies to their battery manufacturers has produced massive capacity and supply of Prismatic LiFePO4 cells which are great for lower performance EVs and fantastic for solar storage.

If the cost per KW/h keeps going down at this rate, EVs could be produced more cheaply than ICE vehicles within the next 5 – 10 years.

The charging infrastructure looks like more of a bottleneck going forward.

A Fly In Your Ointment

Naive.

If the cost per KW/h keeps going down at this rate, EVs could be…

the so-called “Llewdo and Bleato of EmBee fallacy”

if it goes at this rate in 40yrs we’ll have 100000000GWh batteries the size of the Anzac biscuits box and it will quick-charge in 30min to 85% from solar panels on rooftops of servos which could charge 3 vehicles at the same rate in parallel on a rainy day.

The honeymoon is over, the subsidy which created initial hype has fizzled out with cars hitting the secondhand market at substantial depreciation and range anxiety setting in.
The only projection to have ever come closer to the truth with every decade is the encroaching dystopia-totalitarian predictions.

Nothing wrong with bEV for those metro car share shyte where range is not of an issue. Elsewhere… LOL!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xS8xX3usi4c

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4fro_xPdj5E

JimsCentralBanking

The problem with responding to people like you is that I have to explain things that are obvious to person with at least average intelligence, but are of confusion to you:

There’s a price floor with battery production, as with all manufactured goods.

Obviously there’s no continuous cost reduction because materials and equipment aren’t free. And obviously there are physical size constraints set by the laws of physics etc (if you actually had a clue you’d realise the batteries I mentions are actually larger per KW/h than the cylindrical NMCs used in higher end Teslas)

You’re a complete waste of time.

A Fly In Your Ointment

Oh, shyte, you’re one of those “at this rate of improvement, the solar panels will become so very much efficient – they will rename them to lunar panels“.

Can’t discuss with ideology mob, impossible; can only mock them.

Stewie

Can’t discuss with ideology mob, impossible; can only mock them.

Mmmm….

if it goes at this rate in 40yrs we’ll have 100000000GWh batteries the size of the Anzac biscuits box and it will quick-charge in 30min to 85% from solar panels on rooftops of

This is an ad hominem on the basis of fallacy of ridicule; which presents an opponent’s argument as absurd, ridiculous, or humorous, and therefore not worthy of serious consideration….. some may say it is used to mock them.

LSWCHP

Avoid the ointment. Just don’t do it.

A fly in your ointment

Noice!
I like my pooping on the rubbish to stand unobstructed.

commentBot

There’s a price floor with battery production, as with all manufactured goods.

And china is well known to subsidise things to the point of selling at a loss to destroy competing countries industries for ideological reasons.
Basing long term potential on costs only achieved in china is building on quicksand.

A Fly In Your Ointment

And china is well known to subsidise things to the point of selling at a loss to destroy competing countries industries for ideological reasons.

not different from US and every prior empire. Will not change for every future empire either.

EV batt world is like AU RE. “Double up” [capacity/value] every 7 years, in 49 years $1mil studio will become $128mil portfolio

Jam

Yeah dirty rat fkers. It was only in last three years or so that you could go to a commercial nursery and purchase macadamia sapplings due to the ching chongs having taken all aus could produce. Plastic nuts anyone

JimsCentralBanking

Did a bit of looking into car prices. It seems they’re closer to price parity now with small models (factor in the lack of servicing costs and the EV might already be cheaper), than I realised.

I’ll be very surprised if many EVs aren’t cheaper than an ICE equivalent by 2030.

Here’s Corolla vs. BYD

https://www.drive.com.au/reviews/should-i-buy-a-2024-byd-dolphin-or-a-toyota-corolla/

commentBot

Comparing base to base, there is still a $10K difference in prices based on the article.

Might want to add depreciation and a battery replacement or 3 onto those costs for the EV as well.
There are plenty of 30 year old ICE cars on the road. How many EV’s are going to be on the road when they are 30 years old?

JimsCentralBanking

It’s hard to compare base to base because the base Corolla is a lower end car than the base BYD, feature wise at least (these could be terribly made for all I know)

It will be interesting to see what happens to the market once we’ve got a bigger EV dealer network and the charging infrastructure builds out more. As you point out, it’s very much a city and the burbs thing at the moment.

It’s looking like these current LFP prismatic cell batteries will be able to be rebuild. Something that would’ve been a marathon undertaking with the first Tesla batteries that were comprised of >8500 18650 cells. If battery replacement is becoming more feasible then resale should improve.

I’m definitely a little biased because the rate of change around my area since 2020 has been fast. We’ve gone from the occasional Tesla sightings to EVs parked in every street and charging stations installed at most shopping centre car parks.

No1

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/telegram-messaging-app-ceo-pavel-durov-arrested-france-tf1-tv-says-2024-08-24/

All the dissidents are going down lately, Scott Ritter, Kim Dot Com

Jailing pro-Russians in the name of freedom and democracy

No1

Just don’t set foot in the West if you’re a bigshot and not fully compliant with the latest version of Globohomoism. It’s that simple. Same as Drew Pavlou isn’t gonna go to China.

stagmal

andrew tate too

hammer is coming down hard on all of these people

A Fly In Your Ointment

Who’s Andrew and what has he done for the freedom?

stagmal

you really dont know who he is?

A fly in your ointment

I heard of him but have no clue. Tried to find but need to know the way too big picture for my taste so…
(It was a genuine quiestion)

OzCuck

He red pills guys on bitches. He probably goes to far but none the less hes a decent antidote to the feminist saturated media.

stagmal

yeah hes a pua guy

ive never really consumed his content but all i know is the schoolmarm gen x types who run the abc and australian media really dont like him and think hes singularly responsible for domestic violence, ‘misogyny’ etc in australia somehow

A Fly In Your Ointment

ok, tnx
i don’t follow mgtow events…

OzCuck

Russell Brand. I don’t know what’s going on with him since he got done for decades backdated ‘rape’. He’s still making youtube vids. I don’t know if he talks about Russia but he was definitely an anti jabby and follows the money on every issue.

OzCuck

Wew, literal wifes bf guy

https://youtu.be/HZiO_Zn41nU?t=229

A Fly In Your Ointment

ANZ offers 10 years fixed LVR 80% or less at 7.49% p.a

I doubt they’d offer 1%ish over the current IR’s for a decade if they thought there was a serious IR pressure upwards. Unless their CEO is a severe gambler. Methinks rate are likely to stay near where they are for a long period.
Commbank offers major stimulus for a 3yr fixed loan (vs. 1, 2, 4 and 5yr terms) so that ought to mean sumtin….
Also, methinks that fixed terms are at levels where they are to attract a certain percentage of the bank’s portfolio into it. Once that is done, they wrap up and then offer the next level up. Rinse and repeat.

canuckdownunder

LMAO, after yet another mass stabbing, politicians in Germany are now calling for a ban on carrying knives in public. Of course these same politicians want to ban the only political party daring to address the actual cause of the crimes.

A Fly In Your Ointment

The whole thing with AfD is that they need to be “banned” so that they can get the stronger grip and hold on voters. Equally the same, abating the immigration of every Yusuf and Abdollah serves to bellicose aboriginals against late arrivals… then the Kristal Nacht… then 1939…. rinse and repeat.
Immigration serves to cause the next WW, which will be televised

NoMansLand

These people aren’t that competent to have plans, especially plans that work. They just have ideology, which by definition, is impervious to reality.

The West, on its current trajectory, is just going to fail. No one will fight because anyone with a brain would rather shoot their commanding officer than fight for their landlords. I’m fighting to “protect” the Republic of China from the People’s Republic of China while the Chinese are buying up infrastructure and real estate in Australia?

It’s not going to be some big bang; the West will just become irrelevant like the Commonwealth.

Just waiting for the moment when Australian girls go over to China to work in their brothels.

A fly in your ointment

The war is quite profitable. Like the broken window, if you’re selling glass and windows.
I wish I’m optimistic as you

OzCuck

Yeah, I think you’d have to be pretty overly confident to tell if ching chongs or jewsa will win. Both are fucked up and print money like crazy and inflate the fuck out of real estate and fuck their own children over. It’s a game purely for wealthy sickos.

A fly in your ointment

It’s a game purely for wealthy sickos.

That’s what I meant

NoMansLand

The West (i.e. the US and its vassals) doesn’t have the capacity to fight since wars require industry and we sold ours off to the Chinese. The US can barely get its astronauts out of orbit. And bullets can’t be made unless there’s maximal profit in it. So if there is a war, it’ll be short and one sided or short and nuclear.

Would you fight for your landlords who sell out to the supposed enemies and import them en masse?

But failure is always an option and it seems for the West it’s the only option. So I expect more investment in losing industries like real estate and financial nonsense like crypto rather than taking a cold hard calculated look at ourselves and having some commitment to being a civilization as opposed to being a mafia cartel.

A Fly In Your Ointment

slomo war, multi player multi level (i.e. lower classes fighting each other and locals fighting ‘unacceptables’, all proxied by upper classes)

NoMansLand

I get the logic, I just don’t see any one bothering to fight foreigners for. They’d probably consider it racist.

You have to have something to fight for; whether it’s an idea or some shit. We have bubble tea.

A Fly In Your Ointment

I just don’t see any one bothering to fight foreigners for. They’d probably consider it racist.

hence the AfD types. to radicalise when time is due.
the ‘idea’ to fight for’ is there, it is buried under a pile of forced inclusivity beyond reasonable. It is boiling in a pressure cooker with a relief valve stuck.
none of that is by a chance…

Poochy

Good take

Poochy

Finally there’s a post about something sensible to interrupt the boring griefposting harping on about how Indians/blacks/jews/women are responsible for everything that is wrong with my life. And the world.

A fly in your ointment

Above response is severely discriminatory of Abos and slopes.

And as all previous sensible topics, it only garnered a few responses before became swamped with the usual supremacy shyte.

stagmal

could you cite an example of that shyte in this thread

Poochy

You’re right, it was an incomplete list. Just wrote what came to mind.

robert2013

Mine weren’t like that.

the arborist

Good idea. Let’s not talk about the big problems causing western civilisation to fail. We should instead focus on making a buck while the world burns.

commentBot

If you are going to talk about the big problems talk about the root causes not the surface level symptoms…

the arborist

We do, but you and Poochy doesn’t like it because it’s misogynistic and antisemitic.

There’s no point talking about how to make a buck if you’re going to ignore the source of the chaos. You have no understanding of market forces if you refuse to see the forces shaping it.

OzCuck

Stupid cunt redditors coming to the conclusion that maybe competing with 500k poos a year isn’t the best idea.

https://old.reddit.com/r/australian/comments/1f0psuq/cost_of_living_is_turning_australia_into_survival/

We need to start bashing nerds again.

stagmal

theres no point in drawing any conclusions of what redditors think from any given thread, in some threads anyone who criticises immigration gets mass down voted, in others they’re more receptive to immigration criticism. theres no logic to any of it

commentBot

some threads anyone who criticises immigration gets mass down voted, in others they’re more receptive to immigration criticism. theres no logic to any of it

It’s like reddit has a large audience of varying opinions or something.

stagmal

which is why you cant draw any general conclusions about what they think

No1

https://www.reddit.com/r/australian/comments/1f0v1o8/some_of_our_young_blokes_doing_us_proud_in_kursk/

NAFO has already taken control of the sub

IMO fast on the way to being assimilated into standard Reddit f4g culture

stagmal

that subs always been like that

OzCuck

Woops I didn’t notice it was /r/australian not /r/australia. The latter being the leftie cesspit.

stagmal

they’re both shite
r australian bans people who talk about immigration too much too

No1

https://archive.md/Ea1xe

Wonder if Labor has fucked themselves with this union stuff

Tradies were already starting to drift to the Libs, cashed up white males that they are

robert2013

CFMEU was the one of the few proper unions left. Without it, the soy boys and femmos at the LAbor partay might as well rename themselves the postmodern nihilist party, because that’s all they are.

Aussie Soy Boy

I still don’t understand this cost of living crisis. It’s not like the processed snacks jump into your shopping cart, or the burger from Uber Eats suddenly materialised on your front doorstep, or the pint is automatically deducted from your card. You have to purchase all of these luxuries.

OzCuck

Gotta have the suv too. It’s just propadee normie idiots projecting onto supermarkets and maccas.

A fly in your ointment

Latest iphone is too expensive and can’t afford to dine out every day now…. the end of the world is near

SoylentGreen

Hi Mark

I think you will have a clearer picture within the next four months, which is a bonus. For background, one of my favorite podcasts is Thoughtful Money with Adam Taggart who previously hosted and Co owned Wealthion. From listening to his shows for about a year there seems to be three camps.

I have noticed even some of the bulls on his show like Darius Dale have a more cautious outlook. Daniel Di Martino Booth has been remarking about how all of the jobs growth figures get revised down the following reporting period, but this recent one of close to 1 mil is a pretty big miss in my opinion.

With the Yen carry trade unwinding in part a few weeks ago, the sudden sell off could have been a realization that confidence in the system in general is not very strong… why the sharp liquidation if faith in the system was sound? This is just my read on the matter.

One thing I have been watching is that among the 5 Forum countries (USA, Canada, UK, NZ, Australia), the USA, Canada and Australia are the only ones not to have cut yet. If the USA cuts in September as everyone thinks (that is another thing, “higher for longer” has moved to “we are done hiking” to “we are probably going to cut” in fairly short order), then will Australia keep rates high and have a strong dollar?? Hard to say. If we are bombarded with mortgage stress news articles between now and September and an increase in unemployment then I think we will cut too. Most of the 5 forum countries have raised and lowered rates generally in unison.

Have a good day.

commentBot

it is an easy task for Iran to close the Strait of Hormuz, cutting off bulk of oil supply to the world. Without energy, military stops.

Good thing those icbms come pre-loaded with fuel then?

stagmal

have you figured out yet that ya cant just “bomb em” to actually win a war yet or nah?

Joe Rogan has a episode with Annie Jacobsen where they go into the whole nuclear thing, in short there is not enough time / missiles to shoot down the number of ICBM’s that can be launched. So if they start throwing nuke’s we are all back to the stone age in about 20-30 mins.

Stewie

I remember reading somewhere that one of the main barriers to reconditioning the Minutemen further is that they basically couldn’t build minutemen missiles using the original instructions with modern engineers.

With engineering and design changing so much, the entire language and engineering build instructions has evolved far beyond what was originally autistically written down on paper, in many cases in longhand, with slide rulers and log tables.

Basically they would have to gather the few original engineers who worked on it, pair them with modern day coders/engineers and translate into modern parlance all the original instructions.

Poochy

Could certainly be that. Kinda like NASA forgot what they once knew, or claimed to know.

I think part of it is that standards are higher.

NASA wouldn’t send people to the moon today with the sorts of chances of success that they accepted in the 1960s.

95% might have been good enough then. At least 99.5% now (possibly 99.9%). That is 10 times harder (or 50 times harder at 99.9%).

Another aspect is monetary debasement. With money less sound, more smart people have had to devote time to portfolio management and financial engineering, fewer people left for actual engineering.

NoMansLand

If you nuke the oil, you still lose.

robert2013

Take this piss song: “We’re all far right now”

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=33uo2QQmL80

stagmal

do you guys like looking at places on google street view?

sao tome and principe are now available for street view, probably the rarest location so far

https://maps.app.goo.gl/Ka1deWy33kTqacG6A

A Fly In Your Ointment

noice!

roads seem good for ADV motobiking.

stagmal

yeah not so bad

OzCuck

Most of the brown world seems to be living in the 50s to the 2000s now. I’m a bit jelly. We still have to act like they are all World Vision nogs though.

OzCuck

Yeah ww2 gen was the happiest imo.

A fly in your ointment

Emotionless one night stands galore, no woke shyte (as measured from today’s perspectice), no aids, syphilis became curable, some semblance of a society (as in neighbourhood) and aboriginal nazism just went underground…. nice

JimsCentralBanking

Street view is one of Google’s best accomplishments. It’s just brilliant. I’d rate it a very close second to their purchase of YouTube.

YYY Guy
A Fly In Your Ointment

i wonder what will resident ‘experts in genetic traits’ tell about this one:

The business belonging to a man twice named Young Australian of the Year, and who was later convicted of fraud, has collapsed with debts exceeding $1 million.

Stewie

As one of the alluded to ‘experts in genetic traits’ I’d say he looks like a crook and a Spiv. Many entrepreneurs sail close to the wind, as they are endowed with similar characteristics in terms of self confidence and charisma as con men. However in this regard he appears to have readily and knowingly crossed the line.

That said, as an ‘expert in genetic traits’ it is always important to point out to empathetic ignoramaouses the importance of “per capita” which is a concept that is very difficult for low IQ individuals to grasp.

In this case it isn’t the fact that there is dishonest Celtic-Anglo-Saxon, there will always be some dishonest individuals – what matters is the distribution of such people throughout society and their preponderance to engage in criminal activity.

In these cases the best proxy for determining the likelihood of engaging in a criminal act on the basis of Genetics AND Culture (because as anyone who genuinely engages on the subject, knows that BOTH play a part) is on base levels of societal honesty.

In this respect there have been many studies done on honesty levels, and thus the level of trustedness that exists in society – which conversely would suggest lower likelihoods of encountering Brad Smiths. So I would point you to the below chart:

https://www.sci.news/othersciences/psychology/civic-honesty-07337.html

Clearly most civilized societies have honesty levels higher than 50%, which is is why Spain is ranked higher than Italy.

The most interesting one though to my mind is China, which is clearly ranked last, while Japan, who are the other of the East Asian races most closely related to them isn’t even listed. In Japan a fan can catch a base ball, and have safely passed around the stadium for other people to photograph prior to it being returned to the person who originally caught it. The destruction of the pre-existing Chinese culture as a product of the Maoist cultural revolution is clearly evidenced.

This clearly shows that while genetics is important, so too is culture.

For the moment Australia certainly has it over dishonest low trust societies like Italy, Turkey or Ghana. However it should also serve as a warning as to the dangers of immigration under the auspices of MultiCult to such a generally safe, honest, high trust society like Australia – where the immigrant is under no pressure to integrate and assimilate, or adopt those values that clearly made us one of the highest trust societies in the world.

Capture-Copy-15
Last edited 3 months ago by Stewie
LSWCHP

Italy is a second world country, full of thieves and idiots. After we visited there, the Rome main branch of Hertz charged our credit card with an extra 64 Euro for no reason. It was like every one who hires a car gets robbed by Hertz, and if you complain they’ll simply return it, and if you don’t, which a lot of people wouldn’t, the workers keep the money and have a round of drinks with the proceeds.

And watch out for public transport. Some deliberate obfuscation on the part of a bus company resulted in me and the missus being fined for fare evasion, in a system where it’s almost impossible to use the system correctly if you’re not a local. In other words, it was a deliberate trap for tourists, run by crims masquerading as a bus company.

A fly in your ointment

It’s called “the ignorance tax on complacents”
Wops are a mix of Arabs and reject of Latin tribes. They had their penal colony in Sicilia and it created equally the same outcome.

stagmal

theres minimal levantine ancestry in italy

theyre overwhelmingly the same people they always were since antiquity

italy has a higher gdp per capita than australia when relative price levels and work hours are adjusted for

A Fly In Your Ointment

theyre overwhelmingly the same people they always were since antiquity

So Arabs got the poor cultural traits from Romans?
Observable difference is only in choice of clothes and car design.

italy has a higher gdp per capita than australia when relative price levels and work hours are adjusted for

Proper comparison is England vs. Italy and Sicily vs. Australia.
On the “live to work” vs “work to live”, any Mediterranean or Wog cuntry wins by a massive landslide. That would be unfair to compare.

Stewie

…and yet here you are.

stagmal

hes czech which doesnt seem like such a bad place i dont know why hed come here

Last edited 3 months ago by stagmal
A fly in your ointment

‘Czech mate!’
oooor…. is it ‘Check mate!’?

OzCuck

Fly is Czech? They’re not even wogs. Czech is one of the best places on the planet atm it seems. One of those little countries the jews haven’t gotten around to shitting up yet. You fraud Fly.

Although like Ivan Lendl you may not be a wog but you look like one.

https://www.mgtow.tv/watch/rodney-rude-i-may-not-be-a-wog-but-i-look-like-one-1988_JIe4AozhZsuq2fX.html

The90kwbeast

No it’s called being a scammy prick of a transport system. It’s not an ignorance tax.

The90kwbeast

This was precisely my experience of Italian bus transport also. It’s all a tourist scam trap.

A Fly In Your Ointment

yep, poojeets and slopes will destroy this cuntry
/s

Bad Santa

OzCuck

I remember when being hot and healthy was good. Now its compulsory to be a faggot.

LSWCHP

Ointment guy will be pleased by that, after all, what’s ointment for, if not to soothe the burning after some rough action.

OzCuck

Yeah most wogs didn’t fair too well in those days. Every demographic accept their lot, mostly kept to themselves and that was that.

A fly in your ointment

Noice try… but the mononym you invented is actually “…in your ointment”
Better luck next time, you’re certainly improving your sarcastic sling shots… one day, interaction with me will cause you to actually become a cool guy!

A fly in your ointment

A fat faggot.
Fat as in ‘obese’.

OzCuck

Fat faggot
Soy faggot
Bland faggot
Idiot faggot
Propadee faggot
All the faggots

SoylentGreen

[Url]https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-08-28/the-us-federal-reserve-cutting-interest-rates-australia-follow/104275998[/url]

This sums up my take. US cuts, then we do as well. Most central banks support the system not the currency

Poochy

I think that Australia will hold for a while as US cuts.

JimsCentralBanking

This seems like a terrible idea. He’s already constantly accused of scamming his supporters, now he’s shilling NFTs during the campaign.

I’d like to have a conversation with someone who actually buys this stuff. I don’t understand it at all.

https://x.com/cbouzy/status/1828503688685441121

JimsCentralBanking

I saw the sneakers, was not aware of the Bibles. Holy shit!

Aussie Soy Boy

Harris should be a $1.20 favourite at the moment it’s over for jewboy.

OzCuck

Wow ‘far right’ wing grifting just reached a new level. Only $99!

That’s one of his good tricks though I reckon, making a mockery of politics which it deserves.

JimsCentralBanking

So the -818K revision to the employment level was likely closer to -300K, but employers didn’t want to report unauthorised immigrants.

There were calls for a 50bps cut in September after that -818k number.

https://x.com/NickTimiraos/status/1828509549575438784

Aussie Soy Boy

I don’t understand this concept of a food bank.

https://www.9news.com.au/national/alarming-figures-show-just-how-much-demand-for-foodbank-has-soared-south-australia-adelaide/88c07e59-1052-41e2-86ee-e2f2c39e990f

Isn’t it $20 for 10kg of rice, $2 for a bag of oats probably make porridge for a month with that, add a little bit of honey probably a 10c meal.

One of the photos in that link shows a shelf full of cuppa soup, canned soup, tins of Spam. Doesn’t the underclass have enough sodium in their diet? No wonder everyone at the food banks is always a fat fuck. What is the point of giving them cuppa soup or Spam there is zero nutrition, it makes their health worse, they will just continue craving sodium, they will be hungry again in an hour.

I would just give all these people a bag of oats and a small bag of rice, a bag of frozen vegetables, some eggs, and tell them to fuck off for a month.

stagmal

the average person is such a mug with their money, they dont think in these terms or have zero accountability for how much waste there is in their household budget. paying off the ute, caravan, boat, jetski, whatever are all non-negotiable payments, they’re all seen as absolutely essential expenditures they can’t cut loose even if it means they (allegedly) have to scrimp on other costs. paying down the weekly grocery bill is the absolute tiniest of anyone’s money concerns, but it triggers the cheapo whinger mindset in so many that’s why they complain about it the most.

there was this old reality tv show on american cable tv called extreme cheapskates that gave an insight into the irrationality of he cheapo mindset. you had these extremely OCD and money tight people who would go to extreme lengths to save a little bit of money here and there but would otherwise have these huge unnecessary expenses that would have rendered all that irrelevant and then some. “cost of living” things are mostly psychological, its why you’ll have someone having an aneurysm bc their power bill was like $200 more than it should be a quarter but those same people dont care or think about their monthly costs on paying off their trailer, caravan, pet dogs, whatever. selective psychology.

Last edited 3 months ago by stagmal
The90kwbeast

In other words needs versus wants etc

I think it’s actually worse than that because so many people worry about saving $2 on their 4c fuel discount because it’s visible yet are probably paying overs in super management fees, have needless insurance policies, suffer terrible vehicle depreciation and all sorts of other far more impactful things than $2 a fortnight on petrol.

A fly in your ointment

Why go all the way to Italy to be ripped off when you cab get the same ‘service’ locally whilst saving on travel expenses.

Sheep shearing exists in every cuntry, its taking the lead in cubtrues where the basic metric is budget fitment of expenses.
Noice.

NoMansLand

The polling from the Guardian’s pollster seems to have some interesting poll data on immigration

https://essentialreport.com.au/

Also, in case you missed it, Rennick resigned from LNP

https://x.com/SenatorRennick/status/1827812743212368020

robert2013

thanks….I’ll be interested to if the postmodern nihilist party numbers head further south after their shitting on the CFMEU.

robert2013

Calling Stewie…

I saw this today: https://www.afr.com/companies/media-and-marketing/uncover-jewish-chat-group-doxxers-or-risk-violence-labor-elders-say-20240828-p5k61x

and followed it here: https://www.reddit.com/r/australian/comments/1an941k/this_is_getting_out_of_hand_doxxing_of_over_600/

Mostly old news, but new to me.

****!

My lesson learned: decentralisation in general, and of news in particular, is the only way to prevent subversion of the nation.

Go us!

Stewie

Yes, Zionists have been kevetching about this for some time, demanding a veritable kristallnacht of retribution – ironically for them I think one of the leakers was traced through the NYT.

robert2013

Make you wonder how many other groups there are.

LSWCHP

The cretinous Guardian while wafflng about the political impasse in France explains that the parliament is made up of three roughly equal blocs from the left, the centre and the “far” right.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/aug/26/chaos-in-france-after-macron-refuses-to-name-prime-minister-from-leftwing-coalition?CMP=share_btn_url

In other words, anything remotely right of centre is automatically far right these days. This also ignores the fact that part of the left block is the actual communists. How is it that fucking communists are not deemed far left?

The manipulative bullshit put out by the MSM these days never ceases to amaze me.

LSWCHP

And a really based Pole explains that after a Polish serviceman was killed by illegal immigrants the Polish government has authorised the use of deadly force to protect their border. Its great to hear a politician say “If you try to cross our border, we will shoot you and kill you”. What a guy!

https://barenakedislam.com/2024/08/28/poland-first-policy-dominik-tarczynski-warns-illegal-alien-muslim-migrant-wannabes-try-to-come-here-and-we-will-shoot-and-kill-you/

Can you imagine Albo, Trudeau, Biden, Starmer, Macron and the other vermin in power across the West saying that?

A Fly In Your Ointment

not every border is oceanic.
Imagine someone dear to you traversing area near a border and then get to be lost a bit… only to find oneself to be shot dead b’cause “f you try to cross our border, we will shoot you and kill you”.
There are always grey areas. We can pretend it’s all black and white and have radical politicians blabber stuff which should be assumed but never said as a political score.

An Aussie politician, some sort of a QLD minister during age of covid said “we’ll do everything we are in power to make sure life becomes a nightmare for UNwaxed”, No different from that Pole.

robert2013

Yeah I saw that but thought so what? Freedom in the west no longer exists ya di yada.

As nomansland said above: “It’s not going to be some big bang; the West will just become irrelevant like the Commonwealth”

Yuri Bezmenov said it was already over in the 1980s. I didn’t get it at first but I do now. Once a nation has been subverted past a certain point, you can’t rebuild it. A nation is the trust built up over generations (sometimes through violence) between families. Decades of not giving a fuck and taking the quick FIRE buck mean that trust is gone. It can’t be rebuilt here before we become a minority in the lands that should have been ours to inherit. Look at us, even though we see it, we cannot organise and step up. We are too far gone. It really is already over, it’s just that the consequences have yet to play out. On the plus side being ahead of the game means maybe you can trade it.

Aussie Soy Boy

Another Assange-like stitch up

LSWCHP

The reason he was arrested is pretty much that he wouldn’t provide French intelligence with a back door into the app to monitor comms worldwide.

Or, as rhe frog media reports, that there was “insufficient moderation” aka too much free speech on the app.

If I was Elon, I’d be very careful about travelling to the UK and EU in the future.

The Zuck, of course, spends his days on his knees sucking cock and being pegged by his masters, so he’s fine.

A Fly In Your Ointment

noice, one of the best pun-sarcasms

OzCuck

He’s a bit dumb for trusting them. If you fuck with the military industrial complex of course they’re gonna come after you.

Aussie Soy Boy

Are we sure that Alexa Leary is any more brain damaged than a normal athlete. Honestly just sounds a little ditzy. Probably no more munted than the average Gold Coast 23 year old who goes hard every weekend.

canuckdownunder

Funny how the media really only promotes these special Olympians who are also hot.

You can tell this whole thing is a charade for AWFLs from rich Western countries. Given there is a classification where anybody with an IQ under 75 is allowed to compete, sub-Saharan Africa should be cleaning up.

Poochy

When next post?

stagmal

at least last yr we had the voice to parliament to make fun of

stagmal

i’m all for this one we need to keep the loony troons under close observation

stagmal

i dont get why conservatives are sooking about the inclusion of the wacky tranny shit on the census. it should be on there. that is valuable sociologial information that will allow us to gauge properly just how many troons there are compared to the years prior and view the trends (and where they’re happening) in real time. its like the people who oppose asking about race on the census, they seem to just want to deny us the ability to collect useful information.

LSWCHP

Yeah. Having data that shows there are only about 12 trans people in the country, but they make a lot of noise, would provide a good basis for telling them to shut up and fuck off.

canuckdownunder

Another team in our department had the misfortune of hiring a tranny. Obviously a diversity hire, this person was so bad they had to fire it even though it’s impossible to not succeed in this job.

Surprise, surprise, the discrimination card was pulled and they were forced to rehire it. Now they have to handhold it the whole day with an actual productive employee forced to babysit it.

Never in a million years would I personally hire anyone from the globohomo cult.

stagmal

coming was right, transmaxxing is legit

Nemesis

There’s hope for you yet

OzCuck

Salaries are usually pretty decent because we have for most of our history had a fuck off we’re full attitude. But now that we have compulsory treason I hope we don’t give that away too.

A Fly In Your Ointment

a cuntry of millionaires whom cannot afford to paint the house

Aussie Soy Boy

That’s how dumb the average Aussie is. They would be living in a gutter if born anywhere else on Earth, survivable skills are zero. They spend their pays each week like a little kid being given their pocket money and going straight to the lolly shop.

A Fly In Your Ointment

product of decades of superficially being taken care of by the .gov.au and removal of the common sense

Aussie Soy Boy

This country is so easy to live in and build weath. You basically have to sabotage yourself at some point to not be smashing the average and especially median.

No1

The average is pretty solid

Your rice and oats diet must be saving you a lot of money

Aussie Soy Boy

Anyone complaining about the cost of living needs to make those foods a staple of their diet until they can turn their lives around.

Nemesis

They’d lose weight and improve their health too! Our health system is majorly overburdened with these animals

stagmal

horses?

Nemesis

sheep

OzCuck

My mum went to emergency a few months ago I swear half the people there just needed laxatives and to take a massive shit. Doctors looked a bit sick of it.

No1

https://x.com/nytimes/status/1829618054600282555

X banned in Brazil

The center left regimes of the world are becoming very authoritarian

Since they’re right about every issue and all dissenters are insane cookers and evil bigots, there’s no reason to allow any other point of view to exist

Nemesis

VPN companies will be rubbing their hands together

OzCuck

I’ve had a gut full of cuckservative grifters who love their ‘ouse prices and legal replacement. So I’m out.

OzCuck

I just go here and 4chan for the lulz and shitposting.

A Fly In Your Ointment

X banned in Brazil

so what?
(not sarcastically)

there are as many social medias as crypto coins or…. just move to the next until they give up the chase.

robert2013

There is nothing “centre” about them. They are violent extremists hell bent on reducing the people resident in their economic zones to the human equivalent of replaceable machines until they can actually replace them with machines.

Aussie Soy Boy

Fatcunt Scoop got the jab

https://www.9now.com.au/9news-latest-news/season-2024/clip-cm0in27eb000l0gqotcz5lw88

Or maybe he was just a fat cunt.