What’s the conspiracy?

Coming,

I do appreciate your opinions, but some of the opinions above tend to read as statements. Again, no links to avoid the sin bin.

I can’t agree that Russia will get crushed by the USA/West. Two things: materiel and supply lines. The West does not have sufficient capability to produce enough missiles, bombs, rockets and munitions to sustain the Ukrainian rate of fire, let alone match Russian rate, which is 5-10 times higher. There have been numerous links and discussions on this subject here and elsewhere.

The nation is crumbling

Which nation? Russia? Ukraine? How did you arrive at this opinion?

I agree that China has its own domestic problems, demography will play a funny trick on them in a generation or two, they have a limited window of opportunity to do something about it. That’s why I think they are so hell-bent on trade route across Eurasia.

I do not think we will return to the unipolar world. That ship has sailed. We can go to the multipolar world peacefully, or we can get into a massive fight. WWIII will be horrible, but I am not convinced that it will necessarily go nuclear. EMPs, hypersonic, satellite killers, there are weapons that have been rumoured or hinted at, which suggests to me that these weapons are already in service. Russia’s Poseidon – an Intercontinental Nuclear-Powered Nuclear-Armed Autonomous Torpedo – is an example of such weapon. Another is Sarmat, which is capable of carrying 10-15 multiple independently targetable reentry vehicle (MIRV) warhead. Each one of MIRVs is capable of being aimed to hit a different target. Defense is much different from a run-of-the-mill ICBM with a predictable trajectory.
Let’s suppose that your gut feel is right and the USA/West does crush Russia and is successful in obtaining a true hegemon status. I am afraid that once that happens, the rest of the world will seize to exist in an “ally” sense, and various countries will fight for the privilege of being the most liked slave fo the master. Australia will likely fair better than most due to the distance from the US mainland and being a host of important US military and intelligence installations: Pine Gap, Exmouth, Darwin.

Then comes the fall of Rome, it always does. Question is when. And another question is how will the internal strife play out in the USA. Being a hegemon will necessitate a strong leader, a dictator, and current pool of political talent is pretty shallow in that regard. Maybe American Nero will emerge instead.

America is playing a very complex and dangerous game right now. It has at least three main goals.

1. Defeat and disintegration of Russia. Benefit: removal of its military threat and a potential counterbalance to the US hegemon – cold war mk 2.
2. Destruction of EU economy that has developed into a serious competitor to the USA, with a population ~30% larger. Benefit: transfer of EU capital and manufacturing under US control.
3. Destruction of China’s economy by reducing or removing of the Chinese access to the EU market. Currently, EU is China’s largest importer.

So, the longer the war lasts, the better it is for the USA – it advances its three goals. It is also important that Russia and China react in strict accordance with the US-developed scenario. Any attempt by those two countries, and those countries associated with Russia and China, to change the rules of the game present a danger to the US strategy. Russia and China must understand this long game.

I think that referenda and partial mobilisation by Russia were coordinatd with SCO members, as these were announced a week (?) after the SCO, and represent an attempt to thwart the US strategy by doing something that was completely unexpected. That’s why we are hearing howls about “Russians abandoning the country”, “increased risk of nuclear warfare”, “Russians blew up their own pipeline so Europe will freeze”. And I don’t think we have seen the last of the unconventional response by Russia and China.

We are certainly living in interesting times.