my predicktion was 5-10% margin, it seems even higher. The prediction was based purely on the panic mode msm and leftards entered in the run up to election which will be greatest for Trumpet and pivotal for the world. In fact it is probably one of the greatest victory in the history of the world because winning against every aspect of the most powerful government in the world and other existing powers being engaged in assassination, literal and metaphorical, is indeed “so great win, greatest in the world”. We can safely say that he was robbed when Biden was selected as the president.
Everyone seems to be in the camp that Trump will not do much different than any other president or his previous term. It is a reasonable arsessment with the exception that presd’s in their second term tend to be a bit bolder bc they don’t need to protect re-election. However, if Trump does his thing with tariffs, the world will follow and that will be the mrna jab inducing myocarditis of the globalism. Production of something other than IO or diplomas may actually return to a suburb near you. Wishful thinking. IMO Tariffs may solidify US$ hold on the world but only if he miraculously stops debt growth and preempts hyperinflation.
His mega deal to stop the Ukraine war is likely to let the Greensky actor down the river and go back to Minsk agreement in return for reintegration of Russia into western money flow plus drop all the sanctions. Repair Nord Streams too. He’s a trader, not a political thinker. Putin is a pussy, he may blink.
Trumpet made a number o promises for executive-orders and cancel a large number of Biden era fuckups the moment he steps back into the WH. If he remember these, all of them, then he may actually have some balls. How he positions on genocide in Philistine post-election will indicate the path he’s to take on the world war development.
My hopes are that lefties who dominate every aspect of our lives and leach on our freedoms will be so upset that mrna induced myocarditis will be quite possible (study says that 92% of all leftards are jabbed and multi-boosted and 100% are boosted at least once). They cannot have stroke as the main pre-requirement is having a brain. But then the myocarditis requires heart so…
Wogs that wrote this article respect elders that wrote articles in this pond, past present and future. Oh, not to forget ."..and the holy Dumbo, the tzar, the caesar of the dubious cognitively dissonant articles"
of course, above is a satirical thought of the current thing…
That’s a good write up.
I also think that trump will be more effective this time around.
he has more experience now, knows the ropes. Apparently has Elon Musk on side and very significant public support (and public rejection of democrat sissy nonsense). What you might call a mandate.
wouldn’t be surprised if the effect of his economic policy will make borrowing rates in US notably lower than the rest of the world. This would be an interesting challenge for asset pricing outside USA
I think one of the few things that is guaranteed to happen is Elon will streamline government and a lot of middle-aged and older people, a lot of them women, will be sacked, and I don’t look too favourably on their employment prospects. Private businesses will probably favour people who just want to work and not bitch and gossip and play politics. They might have to sell one of their ips.
I listened to ABC Sydney radio for 10 minutes and it was full of older white women calling in and they were very upset. Ha ha.
Oh well play stupid games win stupid prizes.
BTC went up to record highs the moment Trump claimed victory. BTC is going to double at least before this cycle is over.
BTC domination continues to seem pretty inevitable (unless inflation is really brought under control, and I don’t mean “2%”).
I like what Michael Saylor has built and is scaling up. It’s a very clever market-cornering machine and if he can continue executing in a disciplined manner, he may well succeed. If he manages to incite a bit of copycat behaviour by other corporates it will be really wild.
The big picture of it actually resembles ezfka property – limited supply trying to absorb unlimited demand, juiced by leverage and secured by its own rising value.
Interesting that gold and silver have pulled back a little by comparison
Can’t read too much into short term price movements
but I think that gold has had a very good run already, somewhat better than i had expected
could be that gold’s potential is well understood, whereas BTC is still being digested, so they move in different directions even while they are similar assets (BTC with obvious advantages)
its going to be interesting now watching how many (or rather how few) of his promises he actually intends to fulfil. im guessing very few or none.
I don’t think so.
Trump was surprised on his first election, he didnt onow how the system worked and didn’t have a plan. He tried his best, but was disorganised and he was outgunned by the deep state.
This time, I have no doubt that he understands the situation, has a plan, and he’s going to put it into effect as best he can.
He also has people like Musk, Vance, Kennedy, Ramaswamy and Gabbard backing him. I’m no Musk fan boy, but he is a guy who gets shit done and takes no prisoners.
I really doubt that the swamps lawfare and bullshit, which was so effective in his first term, will work this time around.
I’m more interested to see how he tackles Ukraine and Israel.
Ukraine perhaps some kind of DMZ with borders redrawn, Israel good luck talking down Netanyahu at this point.
nobody who is smart is ever going to take the u.s at its word again
Could be that it’s almost the same answer to both questions: pursuing the only option realistically available.
DMZ achieves nothing for Russia, and allows Ukraine time to regroup, re-arm, get some fresh soldiers trained. DMZ is being raised as an option by the West, not by Russia. Maybe that is the sign of the West entering the third stage of Kubler-Ross model – bargaining. Russia has always stated that the SMO will end when its goals are achieved. The only difference is how much land will change hands.
Two options are on the table, really, as I see it.
a) continue the war of attrition for Ukraine. Ukraine is losing 2,000 per day. Russia’s confirmed losses (Mediazona) is 75K confirmed and 120K estimated. Total. For the entire 2.5-year long war. Mediazona is a pro-western outlet. I wonder where from you get your numbers of 300K per year.
b) Ukraine capitulation to preserve whatever they have left, and acceptance of a rump state with likely no access to the Black Sea.
The result will be the same, just option b) will result in fewer casualties.
Note how my question referred to Israel killing the civilians. I note that in your response bad guys = civilians. Is this how you really feel? That all of Palestine are bad guys? All of Lebanon are bad guys?
You are assuming Putin won’t also negotiate with your reply. And is actually wanting what he says at face value.
I don’t know. That’s the impression that I had.
possibly mediazone is counting killed only, whereas my number is total casualties (ie including wounded). That seems like it could be the case as killed:wounded ratio can hover at something like 1:3 to 1:5.
no, of course not. But there are bad guys there and when you go to kill them it is inevitable that civilians also get killed.
interestingly the typical ratio of combatant:civilian casualties is also said to be something like 1:4 in urban warfare (or maybe 1:6? I don’t remember). I wonder if there are stats out there on what the ratios in gaza and lebanon are and if they are significantly better or worse.
turns out primaries exist for a reason. trying to shuffle in some backroom spook no one wanted or voted for might fly in countries like australia but not there. my guess is the election became unsalvageable for Ds the moment joe biden revealed how senile he really was.
Saturation and memory (the missing ingredients for local awakening).
They just had too much of the same shyte for too long and a candidate who is not a litter of the same ole. No matter how realistic or not, it is a hope.
Unlike Kamilla, Trumpet will make America look great on the way down.
I note your comment
However, there are a number of things in your piece I’d like to address, as well as add some of my own thoughts.
First, attaboy for your “predicktion“. Hope you made some money off it. But it was certainly not “one of the greatest victory in the history of the world“. Outside of the echo chamber of the MSM, the mood on the ground was easily read. Kamala never stood a chance. Populace may be sheep, but they do remember what is hitting their back pocket, and last 4 years, compared with the first term of Trump, were certainly not good. Trump won on economy, everything else is an afterthought. Paging Bill Clinton.
Second, I do think that Trump, having won his second term, after being denied (robbed, outsmarted, outmanoeuvred) it in 2020, already got what he wanted – to come back triumphant. Trump approached 2024 a very different man from what he was in 2016, I think he was out for revenge, which he now has. His main job would be to set up JD Vance in 2028.
I think we will still see same old brash Donald, talking loud, announcing attempts to restructure government, downsize, he’ll put Musk in charge of the effort. Problem is, to downsize government necessarily requires parts of the existing government employees (bureaucrats) to take on their fellow bureaucrats – internal fight to secure their own job at the expense of their colleagues. This is not a corporate environment, it is not Twitter getting 75% of its staff laid off. Short of firing the entire agency and hiring new employees, will not work. Much easier to organise passive resistance and wait out 4 years – happens all the time. But this whole thing I expect to be made into a show, especially in the absence of “Russian collusion 2024”.
Third. Tariffs. Sure, raise them 60% on Chinese goods. Two outcomes: US consumer pays more for just about everything, or Mexico imports go even higher. I’ve touched on this before – Mexican imports pretty much correlate with decline in Chinese imports to the USA after last round of tariffs.
Fourth. War in Ukraine. If you do really think “Putin is a pussy“, there is no point of even having this point debated, as the statement is moronic.
Fifth. Palestine. There are still 2.5 months to go to see what Netanyahu will accomplish. In any case, there is only one course of action left – US boots on the ground. Biden has already committed some as THAAD support, without explicitly stating so. Trump may or may not follow, one of his pledges is to have no more wars. That would include Palestine, unless that will turn out to be different. If Jared plays a role in the new Trump administration, this may well become an exception and Palestine continues.
Sixth. Trump is an isolationist. MAGA, MAHA, etc. Nothing about global society, nothing about WEF or the like. But he is entering the world that is drastically different from 2016 and even from 2020. In the last 4 years reality on the ground has changed. USA is not the hegemon any longer, Global South is a real thing, multipolarity is a real thing, BRICS outgrew G7 in GDP, population, economic output, growth forecasts. In this environment it is much harder to be an isolationist and bend nations and regions to your whim. By the end of his second term, we may find even the staunch allies asking themselves “Why do we need the USA?”
I would be interested in seeing the tariff plan play out. Would be a great economic experiment.
Don’t have a good sense of value chain structure for a wide range of manufactured goods, but based on what I know 60% on top of ex-China price should be more than enough margin for many many things to be viable to manufacture locally.
As to Americans paying more for things – it could be bent towards the Henry Ford approach of giving the locals high paid jobs so they can buy local high priced goods. Wouldn’t actually be too hard – boot 5m-7m illegals, stop foreign goods dumping and suddenly there’s scope for quality employment. Possibly at the cost of asset valuations.
I don’t think it will be done that way, but it could.
In theory this works. 60% margin is enough to stimulate local manufacturing. Unfortunately, this correlation is not instantaneous, unlike a computer game.
Manufacturing requires facilities and skilled labour force. US has been shipping facilities overseas for the last 30+ years. Skilled labour force has either retired or close to it. Currently manufacturing employs 8% of the workforce and is 10% of all economic output. In 1955, it employed 32%.
Last time US tried to do large scale manufacturing, Biden gave $53B to semiconductor industry under CHIPS act. Two years later, other than commitments from companies to invest, agreements on $30B and promises to create more than 115K jobs and produce 30% of all semiconductors worldwide, I am yet to see any results.
US still does o manufacturing cars, but I’m willing to bet (I don’t know the facts) that there are a number of Chinese companies involved in producing parts for final assembly in the US.
Sadly, we are in the same predicament. From manufacturing standpoint, closing auto manufacturing in Australia was the most short-sighted political decision. Kicking out the French and giving submarine contract to US was the second one from memory. We will now spend hundreds of billions on renting US submarines crewed by US Navy. You will own nothing and be happy comes to mind.