It seems more people, some credible, are arguing that higher interest rates are stimulative right now, to a point.
From bloomberg via yahoo: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fed-rate-hikes-actually-sparking-120000966.html
Didn’t coming say something like higher interest rates are inflationary? Can anyone remember exactly what coming said about this and where? I haven’t kept any links.
If we drop rates what happens to property, stocks, crypto?
The problem is that they’ve been too timid everywhere rates to the necessary level to cause any pain. Western governments have given up on any fiscal discipline.
fr
The second central banks started to rein in the normies’ spending, it was already time to start spruiking mucho cuts to encourage the cunts again
Now markets are falling again bc might not be any cuts this year after all
welcome to the church of the holy coming my friend
at communion today we take the astrazeneca in remembrance of his broken body
and the diet coke to represent the blood he spilled in convincing us that higher interest rates are inflationary
in the name of saint lerhmann the holy who also sacrified himself to follow in the footsteps of our lord, amen
This is click-bait to get Coming back – he was wrong and is always wrong hence him running off with his tail between his legs, back to jumping for the wife!
he did but with ignorance of the most important bit and that was the ratio between the actual inflation and the interest rates.
…and that’s looking at only a handful of vectors in an environment where there are hundreds of them and logic is not compulsory in every instance…
topic was flogged ad nauseum and he went on again and again as if presenting new evidence each time.
What he said.
Coming didn’t even understand the difference between real and nominal interest rates, the same fact those articles ignore.
Real interest rates are the factor that matters, not nominal.
As inflation rises nominal rates can also rise while real rates are actually falling.
Correct. Coming was a fucking retard.
As well as us real interest rates being possibly still negative, there is tremendous fiscal spending.
outcomes are not at all implausible
Posted by Tarric on X.
Wonder if Little Jimmy Chalmers will post this as well, “look we’re 10th in the world!”….just can’t seem to find us when you factor in costs and hours worked.
It is the massive expenditure by the US government that is driving the GDP growth there. Just look at the US debt clock and how fast it is growing. Outside of Covid, the current administration is running the largest budget deficits.
While I don’t dispute US government spending, it’s worth reading the link in full. The theory is that higher rates have put money in the pockets of those with savings. There’s enough of those people, plus fixed rate mortgages to mean extra money in the US economy. I don’t think it would apply in Australia. With the loopy world we live it wouldn’t surprise me if the differential equations allowed for some weird behaviour in little pockets, like interest rates between 4% and 8%.
So people were loaded several years pre Covid when rates were the same as they are now? I don’t buy the argument that higher rates are causing an economic boom.
Fed rates haven’t been this high since 2007!
us treasuries are at 6 percent for 10 yr and climbing
yeah when you make certain adjustments (hours worked, price level differences) the u.s – northern european gdp advantage mostly disappears. i would imagine that running a big trade deficit as america does (about 1trillion now) also inflates its GDP – if you buy $100 worth of crap on alibaba from china and sell it at walmart for $300 you’ve added $200 to GDP despite no real value creation
I miss the days when we made stuff here. I hand my school uniforms on, but now they barely last my kids long enough before they outgrow them. Must be good for GDP though.
textiles are really low value add so they’re one of the few things that is probably worth outsourcing
even china is getting out of that game bc it pays so bad which is why so much stuff is made in bangladesh and vietnam now
So much of what is ‘good for GDP’ is bad for society.
That is the #1 problem with using market based or neoliberal or jewliberal economics, as the sole lens through which to assess economic decisions.
It should always be through the lens of the interests of the Society through which the decisions are made – however that means economic decisions are made on values not a neutral market.
To some elites the thought of living by other people’s values is abhorrent – hence market based economic decision making and the inversion of our priorities from society to GDP.
No it’s not a translation of AH from Mein Kampf rather a quote from Henry Ford and the booklet that was once included with the sale of every Ford:
😮
i see it
Ukrainians?
can I order all three?
This is a good old win win…
https://twitter.com/ghostbrowser8/status/1780678440406151177
Given the typical ultraviolence employed by most darkies, that Chinese chap is lucky to be alive. If he is. Who knows what happened after the filming stopped. I wouldn’t be at all surprised if his staff beat him to death.
On the other hand, the arrogant cunt deserved a flogging, after the way he slapped that blackfella.
Slopes and blacks. If only they could both lose.
That documentary is worth watching
Does cost of living or inflation matter when property goes up 10-20% per year. Tax free equity into your pocket. All anyone had to do was get a loan at some point over the past 25 years and they’d be on easy street.
Of course, if you mortgaged yourself to the eyeballs it worked out almost every time over the past 25 years and you would have enjoyed those leveraged profits, but if you weren’t willing to take that risk you could have bought something within your budget almost anywhere in Australia and come out way ahead.
But even if you never made money on property, you have the peace of mind from not bending over for a property manager. Imagine that having to vacuum in a frenzy before the property mangers arrives. This is no way for a man to live.
Even those Indians and Chinese that come over here barely speaking fluent English can figure out this game works. What is wrong with the legacy unit rental scum in this country?
ASB,
Yes, property does go up. But short of selling or pulling out said equity how does one gets access to it? Both selling and cashing out equity just creates a higher mortgage. Looking back a few years in a falling IR environment that would have been the ticket, but in a higher IR environment and property prices still increasing, what is the game?
But can you even downsize your mortgage? Selling and buying smaller or elsewhere still is so massively taxed (in Sicktoria especially) that you wouldn’t cash in.
Ask anyone in the Propadee game and they will confirm the resi supply side is Farked.
In QLD the union bitch Labor premier just agreed to give his CFMEU mates double per day if it rains, and $1,000 extra if they live 50km away from site (that will be rorted like an NDIS claim) on all Qld Gov projects. So Tradies move up to those projects for the extra cash (quality of work gets worse) or demand more on the private jobs. RAMs aren’t cheap mate.
Councils are taking a year to approve standard resi approvals of say Townhouse projects, anything else is taking around 1.5 years.
We just had another record month of Pajeet arrivals and no one is genuinely complaining or looking to stop it. Using the example of Europe about has been flooded with 3rd world detritus we can expect more and more violence like we had last weekend. No Legacy Aussies will be organised enough to deal en masse, the media continues to hide the truth and the police forces make it a priority to disarm and focus on “white Supremist”.
It will be self defence only.
Labor has made the permanent expat flight to Bali, Argentina etc the only way some can escape and even then there is no coming back…
this is going to be standard pattern – all the tradies living in suburb x will get work in suburb y (51+km away).
meanwhile al the tradies in suburb y will do the jobs in suburb x (51km+ away).
so each morning all tradies will have to drive to each other suburbs instead of doing work locally.
some cunts will be smart enough to change their address (on paper) to one of their regional IPs/cousins country house/etc. then they will be 50km+ from any possible work site.
ezfka.
Correct. We are ruled over by a combination of fools, corrupt criminals and psychopaths. The latter mob definitely came up with this scam.
At the most basic level, all we can say is that Interest rates is the tool economists have chosen to use to control the economy. It’s not necessarily the best tool, it’s just the tool they’ve chosen to use.
There are many other parameters that one could choose to control the economy, but the western world has settled on interest rates. OK, so this begs the question:
What’s the relationship between Interest Rates and Economic Activity?
The most truthful answer is that it depends!
Depends on what?
All these factors need to be considered before you begin to ask yourself
What is the order of this control system?
Where are the system’s dominant Poles?
What system-wide lags exist?
But we do none of this because it is self evident (to economists) that the control systems relationship between Interest Rates and Economic Acitivity is First Order.
Say’s who? with what proof?
Anyone with 10mintues to spare (and a control systems background) can prove that our economy is most definitely not a first-order system. It behaves like a higher-order system with multiple dynamically interacting poles and zeros. But in truth, most economists lack these basic engineering skills, so they pretend to know what this relationship is and proceed to simply F’things up, by implementing control using their first-order systems approximation.
bwt all this is before you begin to consider the actions of some very technically skilled Hedge funds that will front-run any decisions made by our central banks.
Warsaw. Couldn’t resist!
The economy is simply too complex and responsive to changes of input to actually be effectively modeled in this way even if they had the skills.
Although I agree economics is more religion than science.
I’m not suggesting that there is a simple way to “control” the economy if economists just had the right skills. Rather anyone with the right skills would recognize the difficulty of the problem, and definitely not expect a linear monotonic response (in the economy) to changes in Interest rates.
In our case in Australia it was 100% predictable that the building industry would suffer and house completion rates would collapse. Coupled to mega Immigration it was also 100% predictable that rents would sky-rocket and that our rent seeking elderly would be laughting their arses off.
Does this help or hinder real economic growth (by which I mean simply the money in circulation aka GDP)….about all anyone can say is, it depends.
Any Reserve bank economist or one striving to be that admits that is talking their job out of existence.
Oof this goes hard
damn im hungry
Why don’t you try that ozempic shit
does it taste any good
Tupolev Tu22 crashes in Putinistan.
note how it falls from the sky as if suspended on a rope
That’s a flat spin.
Thought they were taken out of service before the ‘90’s, terrible build and engine quality. Those things would crash on the ground.
it was actually Ty-22M
a totally different aircraft from plane ole 22
Annnd Israel has struck back at Iran now
Seems to have been a bit of a nothing burger thus far – Iran doesn’t even seem mildly annoyed compared to their embassy’s destruction. There is even chatter that the attacks may have been organised by an Israeli proxy group in Iraq.
Wasn’t the embassy next to an army base? Unlucky I guess.
Let’s hope they just keep killing each other anyway.
The Jews hit the embassy “annex”, which is Iran-speak for “the building down the street where all our flag officers have been going regularly to meet terrorists and plot attacks against israel for the last ten years or so”.
I’m no fan of the small-hatters, but fuck me, if I was them I would’ve done the same thing. And the Iranians are clearly just more of the same old inbred Muslim imbeciles that populate the rest of the Middle East. It doesn’t seem to occur to them to do things like keeping the locations of senior officers secret when outside Iran.
I think Moshe Dayan said that the great secret to israeli military success was due to the fact that they always fight Arabs. He was right.
LOL, inbred.
you got things crossed there, inbred are the others, the non-arabs
As with most things with you facts paint a very different picture to your feelings.
🧐
IIRC, Israel hit Iranian consulate building right next to the embassy. Regardless, all diplomatic assets are off limits per Vienna convention of 1961. So the strike should have never gone ahead. Israel is a signatory.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vienna_Convention_on_Diplomatic_Relations
This convention is exactly what allows countries to operate it’s intelligence assets under diplomatic cover. Every country does this, not just Iran. A targeted strike on a consulate building was, in my opinion, a desperate move by Bibi to get a proper war going, and get the USA and it’s allies involved.
The concerning thing to me is not the strike, but demonstration of one government that it has zero respect for international norms. Yes, I know, this has happened before, with Israel ignoring pretty much all of UN resolutions. But this step is the 21st century USS Liberty.
Persians and Arabs are very very different people.
Genetically yes, effectively no. Adherence to Islam overrides the effects of ethnic differences. And in particular emulating mohammad via cousin marriage has been catastrophic for Muslims, and always will be.
iran has the most sophisticated economy in the middle east besides israel
little chance israel could defeat them in a serious conventional war but there’s little likelihood of that as both sides are too geographically distant from each other and also pussies
deescalation seems likely which is annoying
And another strike on an army base in Iraq, reportedly run by Iranian proxies.
This Shi’ite is getting deeper.
Tried to find this story on western MSM, rather than a blog, but so far no cigar. The story though, if true (and Zakharova is usually pretty straight forward with what she says), is astonishing to me. The history is being re-written, 1984 style.
Reminiscence of the Future… : It Is A Well-Known Fact… (smoothiex12.blogspot.com)
For more fun, Anthony Blinken’s story of his stepfather’s survival
The Black battalion that rescued Antony Blinken’s stepfather (opinion) | CNN
and the other point of view
What Tony Blinken Conveniently Left Out of His Family’s Story | The National Interest
Blinken you say?
it is safe to assume that there’s less than 6 degrees of separation between Epstein and all anglophone politicians.
Others too.
Replace “the 6° of Kevin Bacon” show with “the 6° of Epstein”.
another self immolator
https://twitter.com/TPostMillennial/status/1781382999533134108
The dude was a bit unhinged. Kinda like mig. I’m sure there was a point to it in his mind, but it’s lost on me.
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/shocking-video-shows-man-engulfed-flames-outside-trump-trial-nyc
he had a podcast about laura dern the actress who was in the first jurassic park movie wtf
total weirdo
It is a blend of mental illness and ignorance.
he understood just enough to be dangerous (to himself) but didn’t understand properly.
Doesn’t understand why svb failed, doesn’t understand bitcoin.
His intuition was that he was being screwed, and that intuition was right. But he never understood exactly why.
Nobody was unhinged like Mig. Even this dude, who set himself on fire, was saner than Mig.
Yeah – I was just gunna post the same
https://twitter.com/KeithWoodsYT/status/1781405096024109213
…I imagine the MSM will give it more airplay than the last self immolator who was protesting about Israel.
Nah, he already had his 15 minutes of flame. Plus he was bagging Trump, Biden and Hillary as the same threat.
15 minutes of flame. Awesome work. We see not worthy. Chapeau! 👍😆
I really don’t give a shit. If people are stupid enough to want to set themselves on fire, I’d hand them a can of petrol, some matches and say “fill your boots”.
There’s something so utterly and abjectly stupid and horrific about about doing something as grotesquely painful as deliberately dousing yourself with petrol and setting yourself on fire, that…I dunno…the world is a better place after they’re dead.
We don’t need or want self immolaters walking among us, because if they can do that to themselves, what might they do to us or our children?
Sooo…self immolation has become the current thing? Here’s how I’d set it up if I was running the IRGC.
1. Arrange for a loony to self-immolate in a very public place on a big day like the 4th of July.
2. When lots of people have gathered around to film the idiot burning while shouting nonsense like “Oh my Gahd…is this real? etc”, set off the IEDs. Pack the devices with lots of bolts and nails for max shrapnel effect.
3. Once a large number of first responders have arrived to start work cleaning up the casualties, detonate the second bank of IEDs.
4.When the scene has finally been secured, there are no more IEDs and everybody is feeling safe and the news teams are saying profound things in deep voices to their international audiences, have half a dozen guys charge the scene firing automatic weapons at the media and everybody else, throwing grenades and ultimately detonating their suicide vests.
A word to the wise. If you are in the vicinity of any sort of violent event (eg a westfield shopping mall), don’t stay to gawk or film, run like hell. The scenario I described above isn’t original, it was a variation on standard Viet-Cong tactics from back in the day when I wss in the green machine. The Muslims aren’t the sharpest knives in the drawer, but they’re bound to learn.
The problem with the plan as outlined is finding enough people willing to kill themselves and also intelligent and disciplined enough to actually implement it.
Everything’s fine.
Roll out the Twitter Bots with ‘Labor is a great economic manager’ stuff.
Need lots more bankruptcies
I probably forgot something
I was in Cessnock recently, and half the shops on the main drag (I exaggerate, but only slightly) were coffee shops.
NDIS fraud will prop up some of those.
Barber shops are notorious fronts in the UK for underworld/drug dealers so would be here surely.
Tobacco shops are selling chop chop supplied by Pakistani underworld as well.
Civilians see it but Cops are too busy policing online hate though.
Just did a quick check. I have 6 coffee shops within a 300 m walk from my front door. 5 of them are on the same street, literally 100m distance.
4 hair salons / barbers. 2 wedding gown shops. 2 real estate agents.
Only one bubble tea joint though. Market seems to be under saturated, I shall open one stat!
7. gyms
Victorian Labor Treasurer visits Blackrock in between China and Paris, to “to obtain its views on the global macroeconomic outlook and discuss geopolitics, demographics and inflation. Victorian Funds Management Corporation (VFMC) has had a long relationship with BlackRock since becoming its first ever fixed income client in Australia.”
https://djsir.vic.gov.au/about-us/overview/our-ministers-and-parliamentary-secretaries/ministerial-travel-reports/mr-tim-pallas-mp-travel-report-4-to-21-november-2023
Candace Owens continues to unearth hidden history about WW2 and its aftermath… well new to her, but it is certainly spreading this information out into the normie world.
https://twitter.com/RealCandaceO/status/1781371855544205578
With the truth inversion we live under, the “Trail of Tears” was likely the true Holocaust of WW2, indeed following the rape of East Germany a large percentage of East Germans are now Slavic rather than Germanic and true Germanic people are actually few and far between – like how there are few blonde haired blue eyed French with the mass Italian and Spanish immigration both before and following the French Revolution.
If Elon says so, gotta try??
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1781100981037494538?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1781100981037494538%7Ctwgr%5Ea470d46aabd692e5a1d7ab33b65cf28ccfae75ab%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fd-1301395870451104146.ampproject.net%2F2404021934000%2Fframe.html
Biden’s uncle was eaten by cannibals….
https://youtu.be/hHyFss5DrEc?si=sr-34qSP33_bkTF1
dontchya nou that he was ee-motional, had him confused…. at least that’s what his favourite Karen said
Binden probably got sent the left over take out, which explains where he got kuru from.
Edit: Lol
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/not-onion-new-guinea-academics-say-cannibals-would-be-offended-bidens-tale-uncle-being
in North Korea at least they don’t pretend to be excessive with freedoms
“to minimise rhe content ezfka units can see“
Did anyone else check out MB on the weekend?
F’me it’s bad
Weekend links 43 comments (15 or more from JohnR)
And on the AUD thread we have HnH and Bcnich engaged in an active pissing contest, it’s up, it’s down, it’s sideways, mean while the reader is F’ing knee deep in piss
bcnich reckons iron ore is going to $300. I think that’s wildly optimistic, but I just heard Gerard Minack on The End Game being bullish about goods and hence commodities “in the next cycle”, as he put it. He seemed to think the current relatively low commodity prices have been caused by a flip from services to goods, as part of the pendulum swinging from the pandemic and its end. The pandemic cause a shutdown in services, so that caused a spike in demand for goods, then when it ended there was a corresponding spike in demand for services, and a relatively reduced demand for goods. I did not find this argument very persuasive so I went looking for more detailed commentary by Minack but didn’t find any. His website is down ATM. DLS’s arguments about iron ore falling made sense to me, but I’m interested to hear more detail on the case for rise. I like DLS’s observation of financial post modernism. Chimes with another idea I came across: financial nihilism.