The bears are taking their victory lap and basking in the sun. They reckon their predictions have finally come true and that the great property crash is unfolding before us, but is it?
Some bold calls that 50% crash is already well and truly under way and that prices have already dropped 30% in some northern beaches suburbs. Meanwhile, Corelogic has Sydney down 12% and Melbourne 7.9%. While things have stagnated I’m still seeing prices well above pre-covid levels.
I can’t see the government sitting on their hands early next year. The economic outlook overseas is looking positive and inflation is easing. That paired with opening the immigration floodgates I just don’t see the property bubble bursting like the permabears so desperately want…
Probably could get a deeper article than this out of GPT AI, may try that later on.
They’re going to need to get interest rates down if they want to get the dead horse kicking again. Can’t buy shit anymore with these rates. Even the permabears wouldn’t have enough cash stacked.
I just post to start a new discussion and thread to keep the other ones getting hundreds of comments long. Feel free to post your own deeper article anytime.
Thanks DD!
exactly, the comments here are the value, often the threads are just a springboard for that
Infinitely better than another thread of cooker memes
Go on then, do it. I did something similar a few weeks ago.
As long as the working class (hint, everyone working in the Brisbane CBD) realize they will need to return to work on crappy transit EVERY DAY so that the rents GO UP AND UP AND UP thats all that matters. None of this WFH nonsense.
Point 1, most think that by wearing a white shirt and working in the CBD they are not working class
Point 2, most don’t know what CBD means Hint: Chinese Business District
What are you on about
Pretty much all the vectors affecting the RE religi I n are known, from easy credit to low rates and what not.
What we cannot know is the forces these vectors carry. I.e. gov influence in a free market should be minimal and at best gently tilting the market towards strategic so ietal interests and yet their input at times was non market wickedly tilting the playboard clearly into a non market favours.
To avoid tl;Dr, predictions on RE are like data on NoviCaugh19: unreliable and subject to sudden change,
The only way the RE can correct, in my view, is if inflation wins the race over the unstoppable growth. Every single available tool at .gov disposal will be to throw a spanner into price correction.
50% declive would not even be overcorrection but rather a return to historical mean (or where in a normal economy it should be)
LOL – Short of War, nothing will correct RE prices in the West in our lifetimes. Nothing. For two reasons, economic and social.
Firstly the point of high house prices is how our current elite see where real wealth should lie – real estate. The will do all they can to support and maintain their wealth. They’ll extended just enough of this wealth to towards the middle class to allow them to effectively hang themselves… or more to the point, their children – which they will sacrifice by never having.
Which leads to the second point – social. They don’t want the middle class to own real estate, haven’t you gotten the message yet? You will own nothing and you will be happy. If you, the middle class, and more importantly your kids, were to own it, then there would be no opportunity for our elites to own more.
Either way, over the long term this achieves both our hostile elites objectives – Firstly it preserves and expands their wealth. Secondly, it eliminates a competitor, being the middle class, that prevents it expanding its wealth.
High land prices will demographically squeeze the middle class out of home ownership, by making them go extinct through sub-replacement families. When push comes to shove, without cultural drive then the middle class will sacrifice family over lifestyle.
The deficit will be made up for by low skilled consumer imports that will own land products, eg apartments, but never actually own the land themselves. This is the most logical extrapolation of the outcome of current policies.
All it takes is a couple harmful generational cycles of less than replacement population to crash population groups and their societies and culture. At this stage only an existential War has the potential to disrupt house prices in anyway that threatens our current social, political, economic structure.
“They’ll extended just enough of this wealth to towards the middle class to allow them to effectively hang themselves… or more to the point, their children – which they will sacrifice by never having”
Yep. My kids and many of their friends have sadly decided to not have kids for many reasons.
That is a tragedy. I’m sorry not only for you but for the nation. If you’re serious about family you have to act like an aristocrat. Promise the entire inheritance to the first child to raise a functioning adult.
I’ve literally considered that.
Are you still considering it or have you decided not to? It is a tough call to make. Hard men and tough times etc.
It is tough, because I’m partially responsible for making them righteous.
They’re still young. I’ll continue to think about it, the fairness of it, and how set they are on their decisions.
Is it financially driven? .
Majority can’t afford to buy a house without parental contributions so how are you expected to also front the costs of children on top of that?
I’m mid 30s going through a similar line of thinking. I want at least one child but going to one income will do financial damage.
If mortgage rates stay this high or go higher but property doesn’t correct another 20% to compensate, somehow property ownership will be even more out of reach than it ever was.
My oldest is 28 and is rentvesting ATM.
If I were on my death bed right now, the least of my regrets would be having had kids. I’ve never loved anything near as much as them, or the experience of being their dad.
Life is short, and IMO should be about what makes you happy, and I guess that’s different for everyone, but for me, it’s my kids; not money.
Nothing easy about that kind of decision. May God give you wisdom.
That’s really sad man – I have really worked hard to try and instill in mine the value and worth of having a family. There is so much social pressure NOT to have kids today. It is constantly reinforced in the media and newspaper columns, confirmed in our television shows and preached about by Environmental zealots…. who care so much about the world that they’d rather leave it for a bunch of Africans to ruin.
A light went on in my head a few years ago about the importance of having some cultural values, any cultural values, that help to priortize the necessity of incurring work and making sacrifices in order to have a family.
I’m not sure if it will help in the long run, maybe as mine is fairly maternally focused anyhow. But I really think it is necessary to espouse the positives of family and the effort and sacrifices of having kids today, especially when there is so much blatant propaganda to do the complete opposite.
If I came into serious wealth I would seriously consider apportioning it on the basis of living dependents – how many kids my kids actually had. Hopefully by the time I kick the can any kids of mine should be past child bearing age themselves, so there’s unlikely to be any late surprises.
Honestly I think that is what the purpose of inheritances are for – raising the next generation, not simply so some selfish single can splurge it all lives out their hedonistic fantasies.
Great post.
Ties in nicely to my own thinking that essentially the immigration program is now operating at replacement levels and has been post GFC.
My only remark is that if houses stay high or go higher, that house can be passed onto the next generation or sold and the proceeds passed on, no?
It can – two parents into one house with one child, will still demographically eat the middle class to nothing within 2 generations. It is still a deal with the devil.
A flood of low skilled and low paid immigrants and “students” (along with all the associated death stare grannies and other assorted hangers on) is going to meet a wall of “high” interest rates. How are these future Uber drivers, trolley pushers, food deliverers and general street shitters going to afford million dollar houses at 5%?
Even if they’re hot bunking 20 to a house it’s not gonna work. I really can’t see how its gonna pan out Right now.
The rental market is already incredibly tight? This makes property investing more appealing because yields are better?
The big issue for analysts is what to call the Brisbane CBD
Its a hard choice between the Chinese Business District and the Calcuttan Business District
Down 20% at least imo
it will be interesting to see how the high end vs low end vs ultra high end is affected
say under 3m
3m-10m
10m plus
an inflationary outbreak (velocity not money supply) should put a floor under cheaper housing despite higher rates
will smash the aspirational professional class
possibly good for the ultra high end as nominal returns on capital will also be high
certainly interesting times
aussie yields are taking off again , not back to the highs yet
shopping centre was packed today
The top end has definitely taken a haircut. Like we said in a different thread bank lending has gone from 8-9x household income to 4.5-5x. That’s a big drop in people that can afford $2m+. Also there’s a floor under $650k (rural) and $900k (city) with government incentives and less deposit etc.
It’s so expensive to build or renovate anything, cars are astronomical in price. The price to build new puts a floor in the cheap end of the market because at the end of the day people have to live somewhere. If they don’t own property, they are loser renters getting treated like a criminal out on parole with regular welfare checks from the property manager. The problem is rates aren’t high enough inflation must be 15% yet the cash rate at 3%. Plus everyone is cashed up for the most part.
Yes. In theory the cash rate should be 6% by now if the RBA actually gave a shit about inflation, and housing wasn’t 8x income nationality or whatever the heck the figure is these days.
Aussie Youth Dies Defending Ukrainian Nazi Anal Sex Democracy
https://www.news.com.au/national/victoria/australian-man-dies-fighting-the-russian-invasion-in-ukraine/news-story/287c73d5a3414d4d64e33f387e1b6a53
They should have kept him alive for information. Toe nails, ice picks, broomstick the works.
another dipshit bites the dust
betcha he’ll be laid to rot under Anzax flag, further decaying the only chance the nation has to create a unifying myth and actually becomes a nation.
(of course, before I am dobbed in for unapproved and anti-mainstream thoughts, let it be known yhat all the above is satirical comic flamboyance)
https://www.afr.com/property/residential/these-apartments-will-be-the-first-to-gain-from-china-s-reopening-20221228-p5c92q
slopes are coming back with China reopening
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/quantitative-tightening-the-easy-money-sequel-to-slow-the-economy-20221228-p5c92e.html
interesting but superficial thought bubble from smh
as I’ve been musing on here for ages, interest rate rises through IOER are inflationary – literally
paying interest on reserves is inflating the money supply
reversing QE on the other hand is definitely deflationary (reducing money /reserves)
that could be enough to smash rates back down to zero , and paradoxically save housing
or does everyone now believe reserves aren’t money
The IOER contribution to the money supply is nothing compared to the increase caused by bank lending and central bank printing.
QT should take care of the IOER contribution fairly quickly.
But the QT is where it gets really interesting. How much can the central banks shrink their balance sheets before the market crumbles?
If you believe reserves are money , then IOER is constantly increasing the money supply without corresponding liabilities
QE was an asset swap so at least it was semi sterilised
but this is truly created from nothing and given for free
they have created trillions in new reserves , and now will commence increasing that by stock by 3%+ (5% ? 7%?) every year in an attempt to reduce inflation
That will presumably be offset by debt deflation / loan failures
yes, without getting into the existential question of whether IOER is inflationary per se (which I am a bit loath to do) this is an important point – the magnitude of the force at play relative to the other forces.
I think that you’re right JimCB – the magnitude is too small and will be readily swamped by other stuff.
a running tap can’t fill a bathtub of the plug is out.
Yep. Even with the IOER and bugger all QT US M2 is falling.
https://twitter.com/charliebilello/status/1607816609145528326?s=20&t=W-ZD4iYqpo_D5nYw1GvftQ
Reserves are not included in M2
haaaay, I thought that was your position?!
What’s your position ?
First they swapped one asset (reserves) for another (bonds)
an asset swap
now they are just going to give reserves away for nothing
5% of 8 trillion is 400bn/yr
which is faster creation of reserves than the QE performed between 2008 and 2015
the only time it was faster was immediately after covid
and this is without any corresponding bond acquisition
if reserves are money, then this is heavily inflationary
QT will proceed at roughly the same pace ($48bn/month)
taking from one hand giving with the other
That 8 trillion is total reserves, right?
IOER is paid to commercial banks to incentivize holding excess reserves, rather than turning them into actual reserves. What is more inflationary: creating 5% of X via interest payments or creating ten times X via bank loans?
interest is actually paid on all reserves
Its just “IOR”
Because there is no reserve requirement anymore, so all reserves are “excess”
Has been the case for many years now
Don’t know what you mean by turning them into “actual” reserves – there is no such thing
Reserves are reserves
With regards to loan creation vs IOR
One is a stock, and the other is a flow
Ahh that’s right. Still, it should mean the commercial banks lend less than they otherwise would.
“Don’t know what you mean by turning them into “actual” reserves – there is no such thing
Reserves are reserves”
There used to be excess reserves, which were any reserves above the amount required to satisfy liquidity requirements. Interest was paid on excess reserves only. When the commercial banks lent those excess reserves (levered them up 10x) they no longer were excess reserves. They became reserves to satisfy regulated liquidity requirements.
So I’m not worried about IOR from an inflationary standpoint. It’s not ideal, but it’s better than them getting lent out during a period of high inflation.
I’m outraged that the banks get free money, though.
Interest was never paid on reserves, until 2008
The banks were neverfunctionally reserve constrained
That is why reserve requirements were abolished – not to increase lending, but because it was a waste of time
Also, many believe that most loans are created outside the federal reserve system anyway (“eurodollars” “shadow money” “offshore loans”)
So I’m not worried about IOR from an inflationary standpoint.
then why were you worried about QE?
Interest was never paid on reserves, until 2008
yes around then. There was a rate on required reserves (IORR) and the infamous IOER. It looks like they tossed the reserve requirements on March 26, 2020, which obviously made IORR and IOER redundant. As of July 29, 2021, they moved to paying interest on reserve balances (IORB). QE is here to stay, basically.
So the Fed is currently paying 4.4% (calculated daily, paid fortnightly) on around 3.1 trillion according to https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TOTRESNS
Revolting.
then why were you worried about QE?
In terms of inflation? Because it inflates asset markets and makes retards invest in SPACS. IORB is a gift to the bankers and grossly unfair, but as far as causing the CPI to increase, it’s not very likely. It will prop up some paper wealth, that’s about all.
The best thing to do is get yourself a piece of the Australia Dream, pay it off then you’re laughing. Doesn’t matter if it doubles or halves, if you buy something else it will all be relative anyway.
House prices cannot keep rising faster than wages forever. It has only worked this long because interest rates fell even as wages stagnated meaning that the cost of servicing a loan was roughly the same. With interest rates rising to combat inflation and wage growth slow, loans have become more expensive and harder to get. If interest rates fall a bit in 2023, asset prices including housing will get a bump. But longer term, the only way house prices go up now is if wage growth exceeds inflation and interest rates. Seems unlikely to me given how neocolonisation is lowering wage growth, and inflation and interest rates are not going back to zero. Without doing the numbers in great detail a reliable prediction is impossible, and none of us are doing the numbers. But, I reckon there will be a brief surge in house prices when inflation and interest rates moderate but this will be short lived as wages fail to grow. Also, inflation and interest rates are widely tipped to increase following the moderation, sometime around 2025. That’s what I’m working with. If you can buy a property in q1 2023 and sell in late 2024 I think you’ll make a decent profit.
This is a sober take.
in principle I agree with much of it, especially the bit about running detailed numbers.
my feels in this regard are a bit different to yours, Robert. I think that we are in a different spot in the cycle.
in my reckoning, the interest rate rises have not fed through to house prices. So I don’t think that they are deflated and poised to rebound on a loosening if rates, rather they are still levitating and poised to accelerate downwards to “catch up” to the current interest rate settings.
where the floor is located continues to be a function of various direct gov policies (super release, shared equity schemes, etc) and indirect (immigration, tenancy laws)
Yeah good point I forgot about that.
The question is whether that will dent or derail entirely the mini boom when interest rates moderate. I’m not sure about that. Also, not all AU cities work the same way. I think Perth will boom, Ponzi Central may not.
“buy a property in q1 2023″
Seems very early. Prices seem to being held up with savings, fixed interest loans, rate maturing, hope, and lack of sales, while buyers have 41% less in their pockets.
If rates stay this high, further falls must occur (without likely gov intervention).
Agreed. Feels like late 2023 may be a sweet spot to buy for those able to do so.
Karma is a bitch, eh?
https://t.me/thespreadeagle/34709
particularly bitchy when it is treated so disrespectfully…. dunderhead had no basis for her faith in these *therapeutics.
*vaccines my arse
as soon as the banks start to hurt….yaddayaddayadda
Gold Coast Pro-Vaxx Doctor Dies
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11578455/Wilson-Chin-Gold-Coast-doctor-received-death-threats-anti-vaxxers-dies-suddenly.html
This fellow was well known for promoting and administering the covid vaccine to children aged under 12 years.
Possibly a drug overdose?
Possibly? the article only mentioned that it wasnt mental health related.
Then again, after being gaslit by the media for the last two years, every death should be labelled a vaxx death.
Lots of young doctors have weekend habits
You’d think a doctor could dose correctly, thoughts/experiences Coming?
this dweeb was not using drugs
its either he necked himself, or its SAD
LOL all the Dailymail (love it the definitive gauge for public sentiment) comments are about how SAD it is
Lol this one is crazy
All the Asian doctors I know were the most rabidly pro vaccine
Possibly because asians are culturally and genetically designed to conform
Don’t leave out the Convict Class ezfka units whom conformed to keep their job because of a jab as if jab was a critical skill for their job.
Slopes never play loud music or have parties, so great people to live around (unless you get stuck with the descendants of Vietnamese boat people or Flips), so great people in my book. House will only go up in value if gooks move into the neighbourhood.
definitely my favourite colonisers
If you live in a suburb full of Chinese you can basically send the kids to the public school. The only beating they’ll receive is in their maths tests.
You’re naive. They are more violent than whites, especially behind closed doors to their wives, children and others. They frequently beat whites in Brisbane, they have hair triggers and are not favored by anyone – they come to the public schools to be around whites and white education just like they come to Oz.
The drug import trade into aus has been majority chinese since the 1970’s. They worship money and have no qualms about destroying lives acquiring it. I guess that’s great because they do it quietly.
As long as it’s quiet. I like my neighbours seen but not heard and the Asians (apart from Flips which aren’t even Asian really more lazy Islander blood) understand that. I extend that to seen and not smelled for the curry munchers.
You basically don’t want black Africans, abos, or white males with clapped out dual cabs on lift kits as neighbours.
absolute worst neighbours ive had have been dickheads in utes
super aggressive cunts
The absolute worst drivers, are dickhead usually tradies in their dual cabs doing 10km/h over the limit, tailgating and ducking and weaving through traffic.
Nice to hear they are also terrible neighbours.
Chinese are Africans. HK Chinese are doubly so.
“Most of the population of modern China–one-fifth of all the people living today–owes its genetic origins to Africa,”
Quietly?
#spacecuntfuktit
https://downdetector.com.au/status/twitter/
https://twitter.com/logout/error
MB asking the same thing
https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2022/12/will-aussie-house-prices-rebound-in-2023/
By referencing a bank teller turned usury peddler. A new low for embee.
https://t.me/thespreadeagle/34564
Merry Christmas
(of course, before I am dobbed in for unapproved and anti-mainstream thoughts, let it be known yhat all the above is satirical comic flamboyance)
https://t.me/thespreadeagle/34477
Dob in thy neighbours for unapproved thoughts, henceforth the thought crimes
Admittedly my anecdota may not be that reliable, as I don’t spend large swathes of my freedom looking at how I can next suffer usary by becoming a cucked mortgage debt serf nor do my hobbies include attending open houses. However in my neck of the woods in Brisbane (unfortunately dangerously close to smith) prices have barely budged or fallen at all. Apart from some outliers (like multiple townhouses in the same complex) and absolutely ridiculous asks on principal prices retreating slightly, prices have barely dropped. The rate of acceleration in shelter inflation has slowed, perhaps turning, but that is it.
There was an article in fairfax that I cant find in the last few days stating essentially the state won’t let shelter inflation fall, just an opinion from fairfax of course.
The West is suicidal, we’ve reach the peak of existence and now the decline.
When a lawnmower runs out of fuel it gives an almighty roar then dies, this is what is happening now. The WEF, the covaids, woke shit all happening at once is our almighty roar! The Wests Elite isn’t winning, they are dying and going down swinging.
Slopes are the best neighbours, get used to it, Anglo dominance will soon be history and the world will go on like it always does.
Look at the general public so desperate to keep things as they were, injecting god knows what for a cold!! Spending like maniacs! Begging for the old times.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11581429/Young-woman-24-complained-chest-pains-getting-Covid-Bali-passes-away.html
some fuel for the cookers
of course it couldn’t have been the spike protein, lipid nanocapsule, RNA virus
it surely must have been the related vaccine with identical properties
its probably both! Gotta be double jabbed to go to Bali, so getting 3+ doses of the spike protein
2 jabs + 1 infection
cook that cuck
Which was the proximate one ?
are you now at least consistent in your hysteria
The only hysterical one is you pal, constantly going on about it justifying your descision.
I couldn’t give a fuck! Doesn’t affect me one bit!
I didn’t get my kids jabbed either
Agreed, It is preposterous to blame all these deaths on jabbadabba….
I mean, the sudden death from “spike protein, lipid nanocapsule, RNA virus” et cie has been so omnipresent before the dawn of genetic jabbadabba mucking around. Imagine the stupidity of cookers whom “believe” (go figure) that Emma Renay jabbadabba may have caused immune system deficiency so now apparently (preposterous claim) relatively benign viruses can kill them…. tinfoil hatters
We’re sort of out of the COVID hysteria now. Sort of, not sure if we will ever be.
I always thought there would be a bunch of books by the heroes that led the lockdowns etc, ie memoirs, sort of like we got post GFC (Geithner, Bernanke, etc).
But nothing yet…. as far as I can see. There was one by Michael Lewis in the thick of things, but as that was written half way through, it could not encompass the whole period.
What I found interesting was a youtube vid b/w Tim Robbins and Russell Brand, I think about a couple of weeks ago, where both of them are decrying the lockdowns. Whereas, I presume, both were adamantly pro lockdown during the thick of it (2020/2021). To his credit, Robbins was saying he was wrong, and changed his mind, after talking to a various number of protestors who were out protesting because they basically lost their livelihoods.
However, I find this interesting – does it signal that those who were so militantly in favour of lockdowns, are sort of ‘admitting’ as best as they can, that they got it wrong?
The fact that China – the inspiration for the lockdown approach – basically gave it up, and is now letting it rip, doesn’t exactly speak much in favour. Xi got his next 5 years, and let everything rip.
It was all political….
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hGAgNG5lIsQ
GREAT video about grace tame
i really hope this guy makes one about higgins next
Off her face at press club. The highlight for me was GT blowing the woman logo that looks like a cock.
That’s awesome.
What an obnoxious thing.
Just a matter of time before she has Wilkinson status and is broadly hated even by the left and women.
She clearly has an echo chamber of support and thinks she can behave the way she does and retain popularity among the left. It’s not going to happen.
What you need to understand about the interaction of “inflation” and “immigration” is this – there is an understanding of sorts between the RBA and the government:
the calculus is that this is the least-bad outcome for house prices.
Basically, inflation must be tamed and it will be tamed by preventing wages from running up. This can be done either by
a) cranking rates hard enough to reduce aggregate demand and destroy some businesses, thereby slowing labour demand or
b) by destroying labour bargaining power by oversupply of labour force.
RBA is going slow and running interference to give space and time for government to try to go with option (b).
now, why is this least-bad for housing? Basically it’s because interest rate rises have to broadly keep pace with wage rises, but interest rate rises and wage rises are not actually anywhere near commensurate in practice even if they appear nominally so.
That is, an x% rise in wages alongside an x% rise in mortgage rates is not a neutral outcome. It is disastrous for housing.
Some very basic arithmetic to illustrate:
Start with someone on $200k income servicing a $500k mortgage.
if wage growth increases by 5% and mortgage rates increase by the same 5%:
this is an obvious disaster for housing, with distressed sales and all that.
By comparison, if wage growth is gelded by immigration (ie option (b)), the above is avoided.
NOW, this doesn’t mean that housing will do very well under option (b), because – with flat wages – upside for house prices is naturally constrained. But housing will do significantly better in relative terms.
But it has to all happen quite quickly if EZFKA is to be successful in forcing the adjustment to manifest in labour wages and the exchange rate rather than manifesting in asset prices.
spitball:
The distressed sales from any scenario, come only if a dear mortgagee turns down the new 60 year term trans-generational mortgage…..
41% reduced lending capacity should be how far prices go down, which takes us back near 2012 sales.
Chris Joye says 1% rate = 13% price change which is about the same as above.
Labor will intervene way before 40% falls, and somewhat already have with mass immigration.
These rates have to be really hurting soon yeah?
Friend of mine has put an offer on her 3rd purchase. This one to live in. Over a million in debt (which we’ve come accustomed to now thinking, that’s not much money).
I’m in the hills district in Sydney. Seems that house prices have corrected about 10% and have now mostly just sat flat in price, for the places selling.
Also plenty of places being put up for sale only to be retracted when the vendor clearly didn’t get their humongous asking price.
I think Sydney at least has another 5-10% to correct next year then that’s about it.
Immigration to buffer the remaining maybe 50 basis points of interest rate rises left the RBA has is my tip.
Paging Peachy – thanks for the nice Santa and reindeer screen overlay. But as Christmas was 5 days ago could we turn it off pretty please? It gets in the way of the comments box.
indeed.
becomes repugnant like a jabbed Karen, particularly on phones