Well, screw me sideways! It was only 18 weeks ago that Macrobusiness was deservedly lampooned at EZFKA.com for being so remarkably, rapaciously, wrong on bitcoin.
Just 18 weeks later, the circumstances and Dave’s own post are clearly just begging for a reprise, update and upgrade.
Starting with a click-batey headline that suggests that perhaps Davo has achieved some level of contrition, Davo in fact shows that absolutely nothing has been learned, even though the degree to which he is wrong has continued to click away, clocking up a completely clap-worthy 1,000% (ONE THOUSAND PER CENT)! And there I was thinking that 256% is a record…. nah, this is one for the record books. 1,000% – I dub that a ‘Kilowrong’!
This is the flourish with which Davo serenely signs off from his deflation imaginarium:
BTC may have killed gold for now. But it’s <sic> turn will come and when it does it will fall far further than gold ever could or would.
To zero.
https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2021/02/bitcoin-has-killed-gold-for-now/
Meanwhile, in the real world, this is what has happened since his hapless hail-Mary – Bitcoin has happily hiked from $5,115 to $51,150++. I don’t even need an ancient abacus to ascertain that this is a 1,000% ascent!
It’s a shame (for Dave, and those who choose to follow) that his incessant insolence (or perhaps pig-headedness?) prevents so many prime profit opportunities.
Promisingly, some of the congregation are beginning to take a more pragmatic perspective, like my mate myne:
“It’s not that hard.” Indeed!
Meanwhile, passing on every possibility of profit merely because you refuse to acknowledge that the world is the way that it is is pretty silly, and certainly a good way to stay poor.
what’s the story with sh1t coin anyway, why doesw DLS hate it so much. it’s like property or stocks at the moment or every other over inflated asset – it seems like it should crash, but it doesn’t and it won’t. why bet against the house which is working assiduously to ensure all of these things remain high and dry in perpuity?
Seems he hates it because he didn’t (and doesn’t) understand how it works. It doesn’t fit with how he thinks the world should be.
Its so hard for him to stomach. Rather than stomaching it and learning from it, he continues in denial. And so continues getting things wrong.
I think your take is right – if you think “the house” is working to do something, you might as well front-run it.
A simple explanation is also the MB fellows didn’t buy it when it was sub 10,000, or lower, and they are missing out.
And it beat the crap out of gold.
Not only that – it beat the crap out of anything gold could ever possibly achieve in anyone’s dreams. Even if it actually gets out of the gutter hits $10k, as has been called for!
Are they actually gold bugs over there? I don’t get the impression that they are.
Personally I avoid the whole discussion about the value of gold versus BTC, the gold as a currency or investment etc. For some reason gold ignites passions. For MB comments, especially when that skippy person starts getting in on the act.
Not bugs, necessarily. But they reckon they know all about it…
https://www.ezfka.com/2021/02/11/plain-postin-peachy-pummels-former-gold-trader-dave/
whatever happened to the bullion baron
see Joseph Skewes [spelling?] twitter
why does dls hate it?
It reminds me of an old adage.
If you want a surefire guaranteed way to do something go ask an old expert. he’ll tell you something guaranteed to work. If you have a new improved method and want to know if it will work or not just go do it yourself and don’t even bother with the expert as they will tell you it won’t work and proceed to tell you how to actually do it.
The MB fund piled back into equities last quarter right? The last few days will be making them nervous buying at the top of the market. The March quarter could be another loss.
yeah, here’s my asset allocation atm
21.92% – S&P 500
12.69% – Aus Treasury Bonds
6.94% – Europe Shares ETF
etc
etc
etc
it has not been a good year at all, i just have no idea where else to park my 10c a bottle and 10c a can trash dollars
Judging by the earlier “Too late the bull” article, which was published in December – it certainly seems that last quarter is when the chief economist and chief strategist finally turned bullish.
(https://www.ezfka.com/2020/12/07/macrobusiness-too-late-the-bull-on-everything/)
Not sure if that’s what the fund actually did. There haven’t been any updates published 😕
yearly performance
l
F’ing appalling. I emailed Nucleus wealth this on Friday night:
Hi team, Damien,
I would like to provide my feedback please around the Foundation fund, the timing of its asset allocation over the past 9-12 months and its performance in general.
I have posted publicly on Macrobusiness that I felt the timing to stay conservative was a wonderful position to be in prior to the Q1 asset market meltdown of FY20. This is to be commended strongly, it was a risk and it paid off.
However asset allocation has been ineptly handled since May last year, completely missing out on any upside of one of the greatest sharemarket rallies of all time.
FX management has also been inept, staying long unhedged international shares and short the $AUD even when it was trading under $0.60. Therefore the appreciating $AUD from that low has wiped out any gains.
In short, it is unacceptable that what is supposed to be a smartly run balanced managed fund has delivered -.5%% return in 12 months when a monkey throwing darts at a board has made money. Indeed you have underperformed just about any passively run balanced managed fund. The CFS Balanced fund for instance returned circa 4% for instance in calendar year 2020. Put differently, everyone else made money and you guys LOST money.
I would also like to point out the benchmarks used to justify performance are also created to presumably make investors feel better instead of providing an accurate comparison point. Why are you using inflation plus a % as a benchmark? You should be targeting a basket of other active run managed funds so it is a like for like comparison. This would amplify the underperformance.
In summary, I would hope to see a solid performance over the remainder of 2021 from my foundation fund – at least versus other funds but I would hope in an outright sense also. If it cannot deliver returns over and above other passively run funds I will be pulling my money out of the fund entirely in 2022 and looking to invest elsewhere.
they’re duds mate
chuck it in.
index tracking etfs do better
The transparency & flexibility of the platform and dodging the COVID crash are two pretty big pluses in their corner to be fair, one of which I acknowledged above.
But yeah the past 9 months has been painful to watch. Can only give them the opportunity to see how they go rest of the year.
Would like to get into the coin stuff but NFI about it and wary of the tether scam side if things. Also sceptical of the central bank push towards all digital. On the other hand don’t understand the MB hate towards it.
Don’t worry though, it seems the commentariat are all distracted pulling each other’s dicks again about Scomo apparently getting turfed over a rape allegation which is still under investigation. He’s not going anywhere, and that place will go nuclear if he wins the next election.
Ah ha! I will come to DLS’s defense here – there is no economic value in Bitcoin! It is just an elaborate game of pass the parcel that has been blown up like a balloon into one of the worlds biggest bubbles by the Tether fraud. They will be teaching about this fraud 100 years from now – I guarantee that ‘Tether’ will become as synonymous with fraud as Ponzi.
Nearly 10 billion dollars worth of Tether has been printed since the 15th of January. This was the date at which Tether had to submit certain documents in the NY AG case. The level of printing at the moment is just staggering – for as long as Tether is printing I am confident that the BTC price will continue rising – I said as much every time the price wobbled and Becker started prevaricating on whether it was going to continue upwards.
For those interested in the NYAG case there was actually some interesting BTC history included in the case papers
99. Between 2013 and 2014, Mark Karpeles, the owner and operator of the failed cryptocurrency exchange Mt. Gox, implemented the Willy Bot to successfully manipulate bitcoin’s price from about $150 to over $1,000 in less than 3 months.
104. The researchers observed that the “Willy account became active on September 9, 2013” and continued to trade until their data cutoff on November 30, 2013. Because Karpeles owned and operated the exchange, “Willy” never actually had to pay for bitcoin, but nonetheless bought “around 268,132 for just under $112 million” during that time period
106. The Willy Bot scheme underscores how control over an exchange and the opportunity to make trades with non-existent money allowed a single individual to dramatically influence cryptocurrency prices, even without sophisticated manipulation tactics like wash trading, match trading, and spoofing. The simple power to acquire cryptocurrencies with non-existent U.S. dollars interferes with the natural price discovery process and misleads market participants
https://www.courthousenews.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/Cryptocurrency.pdf
I might expand on this in another post over the weekend, but read that last highlighted point in bold very carefully!
Don’t leave it too long, or there are possibly going to be bigger green numbers to explain!
There is some value. For better or worse it has earned the faith of enough people to attract significant resources. Not because it’s the best blockchain, necessarily. Maybe just because it’s the first and has a catchy name. But that doesn’t matter – it’s the faith and wide distribution in itself that is valuable.
and shares are pass-the-parcel blown up by negative interest rates (let’s face it, earnings are rubbish). And houses are pass-the-parcel blown up by bank credit. Each of these to a much greater extent than the piddly 30b tether.
that’s the claim. But maybe it’s just correlation, not causation?
Is BTC tradable? 100% absolutely it is, never said it wasn’t. It is great to trade, highly volatile, portable and easily traded on exchanges. I have repeatedly said it was going higher – I think I was calling BTC top as between $40k to $64k back in November, when it was still sub $20k. But is it actually worth anything as an investment? Beanie Boo’s were highly tradable for a period of time and some people made a lot on them – doesn’t mean they were a good investment worth holding onto in a set and forget portfolio.
Rant incoming some time over the weekend 😉
look forward to the rant.
Please have regard to previous peachy posts on this matter… https://www.ezfka.com/2021/02/11/plain-postin-peachy-pummels-former-gold-trader-dave/#comment-329
be prepared to have holes picked in it since I can’t over at mb any more…
Don’t mind a good debate.
So who was willy buying from, and why didn’t they want payment?
The problem with trying to do stuff like that is if you push the price on your exchange higher than others people will start buying from other exchanges and selling large amounts to you at the inflated price, for not non existent money.
Arbitrage. look it up.
Willy was buying from other MtGox users, and MtGox users would receive an accounting credit for USD that didn’t exist – USDgox dollars if you will. At the time I think MtGox accounted for around 80-90% of all global exchange activity.
Initially it pulled the price of BTC up everywhere, because as you note ‘arbitrage’. However for arbitrage to work you have to be able to withdrawal your funds to complete the transaction circle.
Around the same time that they threw the switch and turned Willy on MtGox users started having trouble withdrawing USD fiat. Then gradually a large spread opened up between the price of BTC on MtGox and other exchanges, it was this spread along with the fiat withdrawal issues that initially alerted me to the possibility of serious financial problems at MtGox and drove me to withdrawal my funds – I was one of the last people to get a chunk of coins off the exchange. My mate waited another two weeks and got trapped in there.
So a more technically correct/less biased reading is mtgox STOLE usd to use to buy btc to push the price up.
That is never going to be sustainable long term.
I never trusted gox enough to get involved with them.
It was a Magic:The Gathering card exchange site, after all.
I wouldn’t say “stole”. They just issued some IOUs that they weren’t good for.
AND didn’t tell anyone, AND got caught (in a run).
That was many years ago now. It’s quite possible that the markets have matured and grown so much that a similar run is very unlikely to happen.
For comparison, in those days having $10k on an exchange was considered very risky. These days it’s petty cash.
Pretty much – they fraudulently counterfeited USD within the MtGox environment. I remember reading forums where people thought they would do the Arb and actually sent coins to MtGox with the expectation that they would be able to withdrawal the cash – never happened. MtGox only had BTC listed, although I think they were talking about listing LTC too but it never happened. In the end I think I paid a spread of about $50 over other exchanges in order to buy BTC on MtGox and withdrawal them to send to my wallet.
They imploded/got busted scamming before any of the other coins were very popular from memory, but i was never on it, and still haven’t looked into any of the other coins much.
Thanks Stewie! That’s a good war story about escaping on one of the last boats to leave the Dunkirk harbour at the foot of Mt. Gox 🙂
Not so sure – my mate who got stuck in there became a creditor and enforced HODLER. They’ve put MtGox through civil rehabilitation and if successful he’ll end up getting 23% of his original claim… his original claim was worth around $24k, the 23% residual of that amount (say $6k) is now worth around $1.1million while BTC is priced at $50k.
He might get the 6k, the 1.1mill is dreaming…
Yeah – that is what the Hedge fund is offering him atm to accept. It is conditional on the creditors accepting it… and of course BTC staying at $50k for the next 3 months for it to be put into effect.
We all know u luuurvve willies stewie…big, black ones if i recall correctly 😂
Maggot! So good to hear from you – I thought you might have permanently crawled back under some rock in downtown Tokyo. Looks like my guess about you being conceived as the by product of a Bukkaki spunk feast was surprisingly close to the mark.
Wrong again u silly old cuck 😂
Osaka then?
And it looks like I’ve provoked the banhammer again lol.
i believe the straw that broke the camels back was this:
Can’t edit attached image 🙁
Remind me, wasn’t there some bloke that called housing a Ponzi scheme, only to change religion and call it higher/recommend buying…. after it reached recent all time highs?
The real question in the EZFKA isn’t whether something is a Ponzi scheme. The real question is whether you buy at the right time.
The massive irony is that he completely understands his argument amounts to that of a primary school child if he gets so butthurt over my childish response.
His response to my request for some justification for the assertions made in the article was the ponzi comment, with no further justification.
doubt macro don’t still believe housing isnt a ponzi, they just gave up due to defeatism. i still think its a ponzi but god knows if it’ll ever crash given it has casino overlord backing.
lol how the f is that bannable material, some of the stuff ive posted has pushed that envelope to the extent that i understand why i was banned (apparently i’ve attracted a tonne of private complaints to the administration) but that was mild af, who gives a rats
The only person that matters, DLS. But it’s just a theory given they don’t even bother telling you, your posts just miraculously don’t ever appear against the articles.
Why? because a stupid childrens schoolyard retort having the same intellectual value as his studied opinion as an economist and blogger REALLY gets under his skin.
Or Maybe I actually got banned for asking for justifications for his bald faced assertions, for the same reasons essentially.
If that is the case then I hate to think of the private complaints that have been made against me… I thought it possible I could draw complaints given the climate we are moving into, I hadn’t thought that I might already have been drawing private complaints. The only private complaints I ever made was against that Maggot troll with his big black cock, cucking, pedo fantasies.
You’re projecting again u silly old coot…😂
Dont u see the irony of your comment given your avatar you dirty old pedo 🤣
So I was right on you living somewhere in Asia… I wonder how close I’ve been with other guesses about you?
Pin dicked for sure, but are you a limey curry munching Paki or are you just married to one? Maybe you’re not the mullato, but your kids are? Whatever it is I sense a strong sense of inadequacy in you, a real chip on your shoulder.
MB now part of EZFKA and focused on maximising profits. That means adding their 2c to other people’s work and selling it for 20c, and banning anyone who threatens their subscription $$$.
Don’t forget the whole “clip the ticket while losing peoples investment money” thing they’ve got going on the side as well.
The speed of the market swing would have caught a heap of people out. Damien did well to at least get half of the movement.
I bet many trend traders with their simple moving averages that work well in slow market crashes, got their butts handed to them last year.
https://www.ezfka.com/2020/12/24/a-year-in-review-understanding-ezfka-is-key-to-profits-mb-fund-fades-peachy-portfolio-fkn-flying/
yo every time the AUD raises 1c i lose a thousand bucks, absolutely nothing is keeping this unflushable corny poo down
feels there’s nowhere to park your $$$$ anymore
not in $$$$$$?
what, with interest rates close to zero?
Definitely not for Super default options. Cash option in super is COSTING money for some funds (after tax and management fees). Unit Price go down down for months. It’s like Coles bought all the Superfunds.
One of the problems with inflation heading towards zero is real losses start to become visible to the sheeple as well as nominal and real converge.
Very good
Baah. I hate those nominal Melbourne people.