Prompted by a recent comment by a naughy-named contributor:
I’ve decided to do a short write-up on gold, and how the Peachy Prediction compares to the Macrobusiness perspective.
Now, I shall lead off with the disclaimer that while gold is something that Peachy values, the gold market isn’t one that Peachy really follows closely (certainly not with weekly posts, like Davo), so had to go and do a bit of research for this one, to look up how the Peachy Prediction had gone.
It all started one April afternoon in 2020, when Davo decided to shit on Peachy’s post. Peachy had posited that gold had already had its big bull run over the last 2 years. Davo disagreed, saying:
- Stick to banking, Peachy
- Buy the dips (in gold)
- Gold has a shot at $10,000 this cycle
So, did Davo justifiably rain on the Peachy Parade or was Davo just showcasing exactly why the word ‘former’ precedes ‘gold trader’ in the short bio:
That was 14 April 2020, so why don’t we see what happened up to, and since, that date, eh:
Bahahahahahahahahaahahahahahahaha
Once again, it seems that Davo has managed to pick a rather awful time to try to slap down the Peach and to to make a forecast. I hope nobody was persuaded to buy gold in April, because other than a few tiny head-fakes above the April price levels, it has been going down down down!
Old mate is very bullish global growth and equities now. Makes me very uncomfortable when my favourite contrarian indicator becomes bullish.
The time to get bullish was around April last year, not 10 months later when markets have almost doubled.
He seems to be hitching his wagon now to Chinese growth collapsing in 2022.
Indeed, it may well be a sign that we are near the top of asset valuations.
hi! Glad you started this site
those blokes are absolutely comical now
shame because their political commentary / agitation was valuable
yeah i agree. they pinned all their hopes on covid delivering their predictions and in the process sold whatever was left of their soul and became another mainstream outlet bleating propaganda about the uniquely deadly and evil virus. snooze.
“shame because their political commentary / agitation was valuable”
I found the commenters that collected there provided more value with more varied, and often better argued positions.
Excessive application of the banhammer has completely destroyed that though. Yet another fail on their part I guess.
Would you agree this is the result of Bitcoin taking its place ?
which surprised me but anything can happen in clown world
of course Bitcoin is just as pointless as gold, so maybe it’s mostly market manipulation pushing it up (tether etc)
Would you agree this is the result of Bitcoin taking its place ?
which surprised me but anything can happen in clown world
of course Bitcoin is just as pointless as gold, so maybe it’s mostly market manipulation pushing it up (tether etc)
Good to see you Coming!
I’m actually not sure that it’s useful to debate whether or not bitcoin is taking the place of gold.
bitcoin and gold are two things that have some use cases that coincide, but also some that are unique to each asset. Similarities are things like
There are also differences, such as gold is pretty & useful for jewellery (& other industrial/medical uses) whereas Btc is not; btc can be transmitted further quicker; gold works in a blackout/war zone, btc does not.
So a blanket claim that btc is taking the place of gold is akin to a claim that plastic is taking the place of wood (as a better material) or that motors are taking the place of horses (being better transport). In a number of situations this will be true, but not in all situations, and this set up admits a situation where certain wood remains in use for certain applications and remains expensive (mahogany for furniture, walnut for stocks) and horses also remain in use for certain applications and are also more expensive than cars (e.g. race horses)….
PS. I don’t really buy into the tether manipulation narrative. Stewie is more of that church, I think.
I can believe that tether tomfoolery might be going on and having some effect on btc price at the margin. But I think their main game is something else (not price manipulation).
“I can believe that tether tomfoolery might be going on and having some effect on btc price at the margin. But I think their main game is something else (not price manipulation).”
Pretty sure the main game of tether is sell as many tethers for USD as they can without ever actually buying any back or maintaining that “tether” to the USD any more than they absolutely have to to keep selling them.
I really struggle to see any other point to an electronic token that is directly tied in value to Fiat that is already perfectly easily electronically transferrable.
Bitcoin/crypto is a use case for selling them, especially the more questionable exchanges that are outside any banking system.
Yeah, I think something like that is more likely.
after all, why play silly buggers with trying to manipulate asset markets, when you can just sit there earning an honest 0.5% by just depositing $20b with banks or in the short term money markets.
A modest turn on a sum like that is still great going. If you take part of the $20b and go a bit higher up the risk curve you can probably secure 2%….
again, without headaches associated with market manipulation.
You seem to have a higher opinion of them than me.
Why take the 0.5% when you can just run off with the lot…
My peachy prediction is that at some point they do, or a proven to already have.
I wouldn’t exclude the possibility…indeed that may have been the plan initially.
But while you can run off with a couple of hundred million, when you’re looking at tens of billions, I think the scale prevents it.
So maybe by succeeding at a much larger scale than they had planned, they’ve been forced to play a cleaner game?
Maybe a cleaner game, but probably not a clean game.
Having read some of stewies links and descriptions of what is going on in some of the more underground crypto exchanges I think an awful lot of tether has been issued without the corresponding USD inputs.
A proper audit will reveal this and the whole thing come tumbling down. It is also something they can’t undo once it’s been done without a huge pile of free money from somewhere.
Aaaahahahaha Llewellyn-Gimp! 🤣😂🤣
hi peachy i’m here, why’d you get banned from macro anyway
i’m actually an investor in the fund and they’ve repeatedly banned me from the site
Hi Stagmal, welcome!
I got banned for laughing too loud and rubbing it in too hard when Davo wrote a piece in 2020 about macroprudential stuff being wound back.
As a “toldyouso” I had linked to this….https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2019/02/macro-afternoon-591/#comment-3293753 😋😋
yeah my recent ban was based on criticising the china/covid narratives, i forget which one. myself, coming and another good poster, doctor x, all got shitcanned for covid at some point or another. it’s the first time i’ve ever seen macro take a non-contrarian view; their perspective on covid is the same as what you see in the mainstream media.
i suspect they were hanging on to the idea that covid was finally the big shock they were praying for that was going to trash australian real estate once and for all – it did not eventuate. prices barely budged, and, like some unstoppable force of nature, they continue to grow yet again.
reusa has been the most consistently right poster on MB for the past 5 years.
this is how i have described australian real estate on macro; akin to a force of nature, not subject to the rules of economics but its own special set of physical laws;
“australian real estate prices are so fundamentally divorced from any common sense understanding of economic laws that you could argue that they are not determined by them but are in fact subject to their own fundamental physical rules, like the weak force, quantum mechanics or electromagnetism. and more powerful than even any of those. they will continue to rise in perpuity, even following melted ice caps, worldwide nuclear warfare or extraterrestrial invasion. even after the heat death of the universe prices in the eastern suburbs will still be up QoQ.”
This is all very good. It is very true that to understand economic “laws” is not what is needed to understand property.
What is really needed is the understanding of the EZFKA! When you understand that, you realise that economic “laws” are, for the most part, not really laws at all….
I’ve been spreading the word about “Peachistan” on MB and converting more of the disenfranchised folk to “the dark side”. Just need to get reusa over here and we will all be making money and attending sexy parties!
mb’s next big failed prediction is going to be the coming collapse of china, there’s this almost religious devotion to this idea on that site with almost no historical, demographic or economic understanding of china to back it up. i just argued with a tonne of ppl on there on my other name (master of toilet paper) how a chinese superpower is basically coming and they weren’t having a bar of it. they’re totally deluded and “democracy” ideologues.
i still like mb and enjoy reading the site and commenting on the articles but they’ve got some odd blind spots on stuff.
They get very confused between two things:
that’s why they keep getting stuff wrong, and why they may well get China wrong (again)
exactly….they write about what they want the world to be like instead of how it is.
not helpful
Yeah, and their poor readers don’t realise it!
Because they present it as what will happen, not as a “this would be really good if it happened”
I get the impression it is actually what they think will happen. Performance of MB fund suggests so.
All it does is reinforce my theory that people capable of making good actionable economic predictions use them to make profits, not broadcast them to the masses.
To me it seems the writing was in support or defence of portfolio positions.
Davo Lewd-Schmitz became so emotional with some topics and that crooks a viewpoint beyond recognition.
What really pissed me off recently, is that I’ve followed MB for 10 years now. I drank the koolaid and thought that prices were finally going to come down with COVID, it was the perfect storm. Everything pointed to it. One of the women at work was laughing and gloating the other day because “looks like house prices didn’t really go down”
These fuckwits think they are so clever buying a house or IP makes them some genius investor. They have no idea what led to this recent pump of the bubble. Not a clue and that’s the crux of it, the average Joe doesn’t care about economics or the fact their kids will paying for it in years to come. The same woman that comes to work and cries because she has to work to pay her mortgage and can’t spend more time with her kids. The cognitive dissonance is something to behold in this country.
But hey, so long as house prices go up infinitely, who cares right? Because you can go to work and be a materialistic fuck.
It’s a shame that what MB preached for so long never came to fruition and the country has been hollowed out to housing. But listening to them in the MB echo chamber will just lead to another decade of despair and failure after all just like a casino “The house always wins”
“decade”?
Jebus. Generation. Or more. At least.